Mateer, Hawkins and Arch: Let's Figure Out the Oklahoma-Texas QB Matchup

The most important position in the Red River Rivalry will be the one we won't know for sure until probably kickoff, but could the Sooners have an edge either way?

Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer | Carson Field, Sooners on SI

The way this season has gone for Texas so far, it might not matter who plays quarterback for Oklahoma on Saturday.

The No. 6-ranked Sooners and formerly No. 1-ranked Longhorns (currently unranked in the AP Poll) both come into the 121st Red River Rivalry with issues at quarterback.

Those issues are quite different, of course.

At Oklahoma, who will start? John Mateer, or backup Michael Hawkins?

Common sense would dictate Hawkins will be behind center when the Sooners run down the ramp at the Cotton Bowl. It will be just 21 days since Mateer broke his thumb against Auburn, 17 days since his surgery to repair the injury. 

Aside from a perfect surgery and flawless rehab and a miracle healing, Oklahoma’s big plans for 2025 hinge on Mateer’s health. Keeping him out against a fearsome Texas defense would seem prudent. Anyway, if Mateer can’t effectively and consistently grip the football with his damaged thumb, it’s a moot point. Turnovers — especially in this particular game — are too catastrophic.

The Case for Oklahoma

If it’s Mateer, and if he can grip the ball — and accurately throw it on time — then Oklahoma has a big advantage at the quarterback position over Texas.

Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer | BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Mateer and Texas quarterback Arch Manning were both considered frontrunners for the Heisman at some point this year, although one of them achieved that distinction after playing actual games.

Nearly halfway through the regular season, Mannng and Mateer don’t even appear on some of the same pages when examining their NCAA statistical rankings. Mateer is No. 9 in the nation in passing yards at 303.8 per game, Manning is 56th at 222.0. Mateer is 29th in QBR at 75.5, Manning is 70th at 59.6. In the raw QBR, Mateer is 40th at 73.1, Manning is 93rd at 53.4. Mateer ranks 39th in completion percentage at .674, Manning is 85th at .613. Manning does have more TD passes (9 to 6) and more total TDs (14 to 11), but Mateer missed a game.

But again, measuring Manning against Mateer might be a moot point. If Mateer can’t go (Brent Venables said Tuesday he assumed he wasn’t and at that point of the week hadn’t taken any first-team snaps in practice), then Oklahoma will turn to Hawkins.

The Case for Oklahoma 2.0

Hawkins isn’t the established player or team leader that Mateer is, but he does provide his own advantages when the teams descend on the State Fair of Texas: he’s the only guy on either team who’s actually played quarterback in this game. Historically, that’s a massively important factor. 

Hawkins got his first start of the season last week against Kent State and had some good moments — as well as a few bad. His touchdown lob to Isaiah Sategna while under pressure in the backfield will surely have a different result if he tries it against this Texas defense. His impromptu sidearm releases betray the mechanics that Oklahoma quarterback coaches Ben Arbuckle and John Kuceyeski have tried to impart. There’s nothing wrong with a little improvisation — look no further than Mateer — but a QB shouldn’t rely on it.

Oklahoma quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. | NATE BILLINGS/FOR THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

In last year’s game, Hawkins was overwhelmed by a Texas defense loaded with pros, sacked six times and nearly shut out 34-3. He completed 19-of-30 passes, but managed just 142 yards. He ran the football 20 times, but thanks to all the sacks, netted just 27 yards on the ground.

But one thing to remember about Hawkins in this year’s rivalry: he has an actual position coach and a legit offensive coordinator this time. He has a healthy stable of wide receivers and some capable tight ends now. His offensive line and running game aren't remarkably better, so Hawkins might have to endure some tough hits and pressure situations, but if he hangs in there and doesn’t turn the football over, his athletic ability and big arm could overcome the challenges.

So where does Manning fit in this comparison?

The Case for Texas

Through no fault of his own, Manning was anointed the second coming well before the 2025 season kicked off. The last name, the passing academy, the NFL legacy and everything else about football’s first family of quarterbacking stirred national fervor — perhaps many longed for the good ol’ days, when the Manning brothers were starring for Super Bowl contenders and not just endless commercials or game shows.

Texas quarterback Arch Manning | Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Future No. 1 draft pick? We’ll see. Heisman winner? Not even close — not this year, anyway. 

To his credit, and surely his family’s, Archie’s grandson has been magnificent — off the field. When he plays bad, he acknowledges that and explains how he needs to be better. When the media hype machine folds his image into the Heisman talk like some kind of gridiron origami, he downplays it and says he hasn’t done anything to deserve the praise. His humility and his self-awareness are to be praised.

But the reality is that, while Manning frequently played well as Quinn Ewers’ backup, there’s a good reason he was unable to wrest the starting job away from a seventh-round draft pick: Ewers was better.

The future, and Manning’s upside, can change that narrative. But watching clips from their first year as a starter shows the harsh truth: Ewers seemed to have a better grasp of Steve Sarkisian’s offense, seemed to understand how a defense was trying to attack him, seemed to more easily identify where the weaknesses were, and, maybe most importantly, showed trust in his teammates as well as his own mechanics.

When Arch fails, it’s usually because his footwork or his timing or his arm angle have broken down. Or, it’s because he’s run out of time in the pocket and is either feeling real pressure or seeing ghosts — a product of a shabby Longhorn offensive line. (Just ask Jackson Arnold how that works.)

Texas has allowed just 1.8 sacks per game (OU is at 1.6), but according to Pro Football Focus, the Longhorn offensive line ranks 90th in the nation in pass blocking efficiency at 87.3 (OU is 55th at 89.3; Oregon ranks No. 1 at 95.1).

If Manning has time to throw, and if he stops overthinking things and just cuts it loose, he shows flashes of future stardom. Just watch his fourth quarter at Ohio State, when he went from having made zero quality throws to making four or five in the last 10 minutes of the game. He had a few moments like that last week at Florida, too.

Outside of the trip to Columbus, Texas’ soft non-conference schedule of San Jose State, UTEP and Sam Houston State has done nothing to help Manning’s confidence. Running over a Sam Houston defensive back and then standing over him in the end zone did nothing to serve Manning for Saturday’s game against the best defense he’ll face this season.

Final Analysis

So which QB has the edge? Which team's quarterback will be posing with the Golden Hat come 6 o'clock Saturday night?

If it’s Mateer versus Arch and Mateer is healthy and not too rusty and plays like his usual efficient, dynamic self, it’s Mateer.

If it’s Hawkins versus Arch and Arch gets protection and relaxes and just throws the football, it’s Arch.

If Hawkins learns from his mistakes and falls back on his experience of having played in this game before — and the OU defense gets after Arch like it should — it’s Hawkins.