Oklahoma is Heading to the College Football Playoff, but Will the Sooners Host?

COLUMN

NORMAN — Oklahoma earned a berth in the College Football Playoff with Saturday’s 17-13 win over LSU.

But the Sooners might’ve cost themselves a home playoff game with a performance that left something to be desired, at least on the offensive side.

But now, OU must wait more than a week until the 11 a.m. Dec. 7 College Football Playoff selection show on ESPN.

Sooners coach Brent Venables declined to make a case for his team to host a playoff game.

“I don’t even know what that means,” Venables said when asked if his team deserved a home game. “I’d just love an invitation. I don’t care if it’s on the road.”

Then Venables reconsidered … a bit.

“I say I don’t care, of course I would love to be here, but I spend no time looking at that and I’m going to fight for this is that. I don’t know. They’re not listening to me. There’s plenty of things to look at for them to make the decisions they make. I’m sure it’s not easy.

“Wherever they ask us to play, we’ll show up.”

While there’s no doubt Venables feels that way and his team echoes those opinions — just look at the Sooners’ November road success at Tennessee and Alabama — playing at home would be a significant advantage.

It’s a small sample size but all four home teams won in last year’s first round, by an average of 19.25 points. No game was decided by fewer than 10 points and that game — Notre Dame’s 27-17 win over Indiana — was between in-state opponents.

Read More Oklahoma 17, LSU 13

“It’s a blessing hopefully having another game here to play in front of the fans,” defensive lineman Gracen Halton said. “That’s great. It’s a great opportunity. But whoever we play we’ve just got to go 1-0 really.”

Halton didn’t do a deep dive into the whys, but said the Sooners had earned a home playoff game.

“Of course,” he said. “No matter what, we play home, we play away, we’ve been through the mid. Just got to get it out.”

The Sooners (10-2, 6-2 SEC) figure to be in the 7 through 10 range when the committee’s final rankings are posted.

They’ve been No. 8 the last two weeks since their win over Alabama on Nov. 15.

But Saturday’s struggles with a seven-win LSU team, combined with Notre Dame’s 49-20 win over Stanford and Alabama’s 27-20 Iron Bowl victory over Auburn might give the committee pause on keeping the status quo.

And though OU has that head-to-head win over Alabama, the Crimson Tide’s appearance in the SEC Championship Game could resonate with committee members, certainly if Bama can win the game but perhaps even if they play Georgia close.

The Crimson Tide beat Georgia 24-21 on the road Sept. 27.

When Venables walked into his postgame press conference, he started by looking down at the stat sheet.

Usually Venables has several nuggets ready to go from the stats.

“There’s not a whole lot to really brag about on the stat sheet, other than the score,” Venables said, going on to talk about his team’s ability to fight through adversity. “... The stat sheet’s kind of grimy; that’s what the stat sheet is, and that’s really the DNA of who we are.”

Venables’ impressions were no doubt influenced by living through the game.

Sure, John Mateer’s three interceptions mar the stats, but he also threw for 318 yards — his second-most this season and most since the season opener against Illinois State.

Oklahoma’s 393 yards of total offense were its most since Sept. 13 against Temple, and was OU's highest output in two years as a member of the SEC.

In a season where defense has been the storyline, the 198 yards of total offense posted by LSU was the fewest for a team against the Sooners since Oct. 4 against Kent State and the fourth-lowest total of the season.

It was also the Tigers’ worst offensive production since 2018 against Alabama.

Tuesday’s College Football Playoff rankings show figures to give plenty of insight into how the committee will view things a week later — especially when comparing the Sooners with Notre Dame, the most likely team to snag a home playoff game away from OU.

If the committee watched the game closely, they might be tempted to knock the Sooners down a spot, dinging their offense for being ineffective for large parts of the game.

OU had five three-and-outs against LSU and had eight drives — disregarding the kneel-down at the end — that gained less than 20 yards.

Earlier in the week, College Football Playoff Executive Director Rich Clark offered a mixed message as it relates to the Sooners now.

“One of the most important factors for this committee in particular is they watch the games, and they watch how a team performs,” Clark said. “They watch them offensively, defensively, special teams, that’s an important factor. They look at the 12 correlative statistics that really are statistically indicative of strong football teams. They look at those very heavily.”

That might ding OU on the offensive side.

But then Clark turned to something that certainly will help the Sooners.

“They do look at schedule strength and record strength,” Clark said. “So there are several things the committee looks at and they discuss them in great detail to come up with their rankings. So it’s really hard to put your finger on one things to say that that’s the deciding factor.”

If the committee just looks at the stats — which, outside of Mateer’s interceptions and a struggling running game looked decent — then the Sooners should be in solid shape.

Here’s a breakdown on the teams likely in the same mix as the Sooners and how OU compares.

Peyton Bowen, David Stone, Oklahoma Sooners — Oklahoma defensive back Peyton Bowen (22) and defensive lineman David Stone (0) combine to tackle Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson (15). | Gary Cosby Jr.-Imagn Images

Alabama

Alabama potentially has the conference title argument to host.

But the Crimson Tide have the worst loss of the bunch — a 31-17 defeat at the hands of Florida State to start the season.

The Seminoles fell to Florida 40-21 on Saturday to finish their season 5-7.

Notre Dame

Notre Dame has the high-flying offense, averaging 42 points per game now after their win over Stanford.

The Fighting Irish have scored at least 24 points in every game this season and have won 10 consecutive games after back-to-back losses (to Miami and Texas A&M by a combined four points) to start the season.

But going into Saturday’s action, Notre Dame’s strength of schedule according to ESPN was 36th. The Fighting Irish’s schedule is light on signature wins, with USC and Pitt being their two biggest wins of note.

Oklahoma’s was seventh and of the teams ahead of them, only Texas at No. 6 is anywhere near the discussion of playoff teams.

The Sooners’ strength of record was eighth, behind only six teams ahead of them in the rankings plus BYU. Texas Tech is two spots behind the Sooners, while Notre Dame is 13th.

Notre Dame does have a slight edge in the game control metric, but even there, the Sooners are only two spots back. It would be unlikely OU would move up much.

Oregon

Oregon sits two spots ahead of the Sooners at No. 6.

But a look at the Ducks’ schedule makes their ranking appear a bit suspect.

Oregon has lost just once — 30-20 to Indiana on Oct. 11 at home — but their best wins came against then-No. 3 Penn State on Sept. 27 and USC on Nov. 22.

The win over Lincoln Riley’s Trojans is a decent win but Penn State fell apart after that loss, which was the first in a six-game losing streak.

The Ducks’ strength of record was fifth headed into the final week of the regular season but their strength of schedule was just 23rd.

Ole Miss

Ole Miss is one spot ahead of the Sooners and figures to stay that way thanks to their head-to-head win.

But if Lane Kiffin leaves Ole Miss for LSU, would that be enough to sway the committee to move the Rebels down — especially if Kiffin doesn’t coach in the playoff?

BYU

The only other fly in the ointment for the Sooners could be if BYU knocks off Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship Game.

The Red Raiders, who are fifth, figure to be in the playoff either way. But if the Cougars can avenge their 29-7 loss to Tech, that would give the committee a difficult decision to make as it weighs leaving out a team like Notre Dame or Alabama or — gasp — Oklahoma.

But the Sooners should be safe in the field.

As of Saturday night, ESPN’s Playoff Predictor — the same tool Venables used to show his team a playoff run was possible after the late October loss to Ole Miss — gave the Sooners a better than 99 percent chance to make the playoff and an 88 percent chance to host in the first round.

But OU fans shouldn’t hold their breath as the committee — which gives mixed messages plenty — holds the Sooners’ fate in their hands.