Oklahoma-UCF: Three Keys to the Game

Who wins the key matchup?

UCF ranks third in the nation in rushing yards per game at 246.3, and ranks second in the Big 12 in rushing grade according to Pro Football Focus with a grade of 90.0.

Oklahoma leads the Big 12 run defenses, according to PFF, with a grade of 90.1, and ranks third in the Big 12 (and 28th in the nation) by allowing 113 yards per game.

UCF’s success on the ground is no fluke. The Knights are one of 23 midseason nominees for the Joe Moore Award, given to the nation’s best offensive lines. UCF last year ranked ninth nationally at 228.4 rushing yards per game.

R.J. Harvey (85.2 yards per game), Johnny Richardson (73.5) and quarterback John Rhys Plumlee (54.3) have all been steady contributors to the Knights’ rushing success, but they’re also getting contributions from versatile talent like Xavier Townsend, who has 157 yards receiving and 112 rushing, and QB Timmy McClain, who has 1,008 yards passing and 196 gross rushing.

Harvey had 133 against Kansas last week, his second 100-yard game of the season, and Richardson went 79 yards for a touchdown with UCF’s first offensive snap against Baylor. Richardson finished with 105 yards against the Bears, while Harvey had 95

That’s a testament to head coach Gus Malzahn and clever formations and creative play calls. But while Malzahn uses tricks, he doesn’t rely on them. The Knights want to run the football north and south, often in power sets.

Oklahoma, meanwhile, ranks third in the nation at 8.7 tackles for loss per game (52 total).

Keeping a chain on the dynamic Plumlee will be key in avoiding big plays, but the Sooners also need to be gap-sound and create a consistent push to keep the Knights from establishing a rhythm in the rushing game — win on first and second down and force Plumlee to convert third-and-long.

If OU can avoid giving up too many long defensive drives that change the scoreboard, the Sooners’ offense will have plenty of opportunities to put up points.

Fix the kicks

It’s been like an elephant in the room that no one wants to talk about: Oklahoma has struggled at times to kick the football this year.

Raw numbers — 33-of-33 on PATs, 8-of-10 on field goals — suggest Zach Schmit has been fine on placekicks. But Schmit would agree that he’s just not hit the ball cleanly this year. Many of his makes have had an odd trajectory or rotation to them, and his two misses were important kicks in the last two games.

Meanwhile, punting has been an adventure at times. Distance man Josh Plaster has averaged just 40.4 yards per punt. He’s shanked a couple of bad ones, he’s averaging just 3.39 seconds hang time, according to Pro Football Focus, and is below 3.0 seconds in his three conference games. Worst of all, against Texas, Plaster didn’t shorten or quicken his steps had one blocked in the end zone for a Longhorn touchdown.

Five of Plaster’s 14 kicks have been returned, but the coverage has allowed zero return yards.

Directional man Luke Elzinga has largely done his job, averaging just 37.0 yards, with none of his four punts having been returned and all four landing inside the 20.

Hidden lost yardage and missed scoring opportunities might not make that big a difference in a game the Sooners are 18-point favorites like Saturday against UCF, but ironing out the wrinkles now could prove to be useful if games get close later.

Start fast

Both UCF and Oklahoma like to start fast. The Sooners are outscoring opponents 98-23 in the first quarter this year, which should be expected for an undefeated and top-five team like OU.

But UCF also has been out of the gates quickly, outscoring the opposition 65-27 in the opening period. That includes outscoring Kansas State, Baylor (the last two Big 12 champs) and Kansas 31-17 and an opening-play TD against the Bears.

If the Sooners can produce good results early, they should be able to pull away late.

As UCF transitions in the Big 12 and tries to build a Power 5 roster and depth, they Knights have been outscored 79-43 in the second half of their three Big 12 games this season, including an epic, fourth-quarter collapse of 29 unanswered points by Baylor and 24 straight by K-State.

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