Projections vs Results in Oklahoma's First Three Years in the SEC

OU has experienced two polar opposites in two seasons when looking at matchups in the preseason compared to the end of season results.

Oklahoma defensive lineman Nigel Smith carries the American flag before the spring game. | Carson Field / Sooners On SI

Oklahoma's pathway to glory became more difficult with its entry into the SEC.

That's not a slight to the Big 12 of the 2010s, it's just a fact. A snapshot from last year tells the story of the conference OU now calls home best: Florida went 4-8 in 2025 and watched seven players drafted in the 2025 NFL Draft. West Virginia went 4-8 and had one player drafted.

Adding the three teams that finished ahead of West Virginia — UCF, Kansas and Baylor — the combined number of draft picks from those Big 12 schools (plus the Mountaineers) rises to six. The talent level is simply different.

That's what OU signed up for. This season's schedule appears primed to be one of the most difficult gauntlets in program history. But in just two seasons, the shakeup from preseason expectations to in-season results have greatly influenced Oklahoma's success or failure.

Oklahoma coach Brent Venables looks on during a spring practice. | Ryan Chapman / Sooners on SI

In 2024, Oklahoma's schedule was viewed as by far the most difficult slate of the two new SEC programs. The AP preseason rankings reflected the sentiment.

Before the season began, OU's schedule had three teams in the top six, and six of the top 15. As with most preseason rankings, those ratings fluctuated once the season started — but as fate would have it, Oklahoma's 2024 schedule was not as volatile as other schedules.

OU Opponents Ranked at Any Point in 2024

Preseason AP Rankings	Ranking vs OU	Final AP Ranking
4. Texas	1. Texas	4. Texas
5. Alabama	7. Alabama	17. Alabama
6. Ole Miss	18. Ole Miss	11. Ole Miss
11. Missouri	unranked	22. Missouri
13. LSU	unranked LSU	unranked LSU
15. Tennessee	6. Tennessee	9. Tennessee
unranked South Carolina	unranked South Carolina	19th. South Carolina
unranked Tulane	unranked Tulane	unranked Tulane
unranked Navy	unranked Navy	unranked Navy

Among the six opponents, Texas was the most consistent from its preseason rankings, to its matchup with the Sooners and ultimately to its final ranking. Tennessee was the big riser, starting off one spot ahead of OU in the preseason rankings, jumping into the top 10 when they came to Norman and ended the year as a top 10 team after a College Football Playoff appearance.

Ole Miss stayed was steady within the rankings, finishing just outside the top 10.

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Missouri started where Ole Miss finished and fell completely out of the rankings until a late-season win over the Sooners helped propel them back into the top 25 LSU joined Missouri by dropping out of the rankings by midseason but were never able to regain a footing.

Tulane and Navy were not on a preseason top 25 list, nor were they ranked when the Sooners played them. The Green Wave did enter the top 25 late in the season before a loss knocked them out of the rankings for good. The Midshipmen provided as ranked fodder for Notre Dame when Navy jumped into the polls, but even after finishing with a 10-2 record and a victory over OU, were unable to finished ranked.

Alabama and South Carolina represent the good and the bad of ranking fluidity.

The Gamecocks were 3-3 and unranked when they took on the 4-2 and unranked Sooners in Norman. After stomping OU into the ground, South Carolina won their last four remaining regular season games to earn a final ranking at No. 19. Oklahoma's was the spring board for the Gamecocks' surprising success.

Oklahoma coach Brent Venables celebrates with fans after a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the Alabama Crimson Tide at Gaylord Family - Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024. Oklahoma won 24-3. | BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Alabama slid in the top 10 but was very much in the playoff race when they came to face Oklahoma. A miraculous performance led to the Sooners upsetting the visiting Tide and ultimatley a fate as a fringe top 20 team.

2025 would be a different story.

OU Opponents Ranked at Any Point in 2025

Preseason AP Rankings	Ranking vs OU	Final AP Ranking
1. Texas	unranked Texas	12. Texas
8. Alabama	4. Alabama	9. Alabama
9. LSU	unranked LSU	unranked LSU
13. South Carolina	unranked South Carolina	unranked South Carolina
14. Michigan	15. Michigan	21. Michigan
21. Ole Miss	8. Ole Miss	3. Ole Miss
24. Tennessee	14. Tennessee	unranked Tennessee
unranked Auburn	22. Auburn	unranked Auburn
unranked Missouri	22. Missouri	unranked Missouri

Before 2025, OU's scheduled looked equally, if not more daunting, than the year prior. The Sooners would have to face five top 15 opponents and seven overall top 25 teams.

After entering the year at No. 1, two early losses knocked Texas out of the rankings until they regrouped — specifically by upsetting Oklahoma — and finishing strong at No. 12.

LSU and South Carolina disappointing outings were quickly evident as both faded from the rankings by early October.

The Crimson Tide rose to No. 4 before losing to Oklahoma but still earned a playoff spot before avenging their loss to the Sooners and finishing at No. 9.

Oklahoma defensive end Marvin Jones Jr. defends a pass against Alabama's Ty Simpson in the CFP. | Carson Field, Sooners On SI

Ole Miss was the big riser in 2025. Starting off in the fringest of the top 25 to make it to the semifinals of the playoff and finish ranked No. 3.

Then you have Michigan and Tennessee. The Wolverines were fairly consistent, staying within the top 20 before ending ranked No. 21 in the country. The Volunteers rose to No. 14 for their November 1 matchup with Oklahoma. A Sooners victory knocked them down a few slots before leaving the rankings entirely at the end of the season.

OU was a good team in 2025, having beaten fringe-top 10 squad Alabama, top 20 Michigan and knocking out Missouri by season's end. But there's no doubt that three of their seven preseason top 25 opponents finishing well below where they started was an advantage.

Oklahoma wide receiver Mackenzie Alleyne and quarterback John Mateer stretch during practice. | Carson Field / Sooners On SI

Likely Ranked 2026 Opponents

• Texas (finished No. 12 in 2025)
• Georgia (No. 6)
• Ole Miss (No. 3)
• Texas A&M (No. 8)
• Michigan (No. 21)

All but Michigan may very well be preseason top 10 teams on Oklahoma's schedule when the rankings are released in August.

Texas has a great chance at starting at No.1 once again, but will surely be a top-ranked team once the season begins. Georgia, Ole Miss and Texas A&M all expect to have big seasons once again. Barring catastrophe, the Wolverines will be ranked in their early matchup with the Sooners.

Then you have teams like South Carolina, Florida or Missouri that could enter the rankings if things go well.

OU will need to do what they can to be a good football team. You play who's on your schedule, but if the Sooners get dealt a hand like they did in 2024, wins will be all the more precious. It wouldn't hurt if a few of those teams drop below their likely high preseason expectation.