Three Reasons Why Oklahoma Will Come Up Short in 2026

You can't win them all. For Oklahoma, it's been 26 seasons since they held the title of best in the land.

The 2026 slate is difficult. The Sooners have a healthy amount of questions heading into the new year. Despite some optimism, there's still reason to hedge your bets when it comes to Brent Venables' fifth team as OU's head coach.

There is still uncertainty with the running game. Venables has questioned the depth on defense. At quarterback? Everyone is still hoping 2025 had more to do with a surgery than anything more indicative of ability.

If the Sooners are unable to compete for or win a national championship in 2026, what follows are the three reasons why.

Reason 1: That Schedule

Brent Venables, Oklahoma Sooner — Oklahoma Sooners head coach Brent Venables (left) greets Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian before the game at the Cotton Bowl. | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

The easiest reason is the most obvious: Oklahoma's 2026 schedule may very well be the most difficult in school history.

Road games in Ann Arbor and Athens for the first time are accented by initial road trips to Starkville and the Swamp for the program. Michigan will be a top 25 opponent, while Georgia is on the shortlist for national title contenders.

Not to mention, Texas will be a top-five team entering the season. In November, OU will have to reckon with Ole Miss and Texas A&M before a regular-season finale road trip at Missouri.

Good teams could go 8-4 with this schedule. Great teams could find themselves staring at a 9-3 season with this schedule — and as history has shown, 9-3 likely means you're on the outside looking in.

Reason 2: The Running Game Remains "Pathetic"

Oklahoma Sooners, Xavier Robinson — Oklahoma running back Xavier Robinson | Carson Field, Sooners On SI

Venables spent the spring lamenting the rushing output of the previous few seasons.

In 2025, OU didn't have a single running back rush for more than 500 yards for the first time since Bob Stoops' first season in 1999. Even some of the more average rushing attacks of the 2000s and 2010s had a singular back crack the half-century mark by a significant amount.

But if the Sooners are not able to address their struggling running game in the offseason, the offense may be held back enough to have a few losses pile up.

Despite excitement surrounding John Mateer's improvements, there's little guarantee that he can do it by himself. A solid running game is needed for OU to make a run.

Reason 3: Speaking of Mateer...

Oklahoma Sooners, John Mateer — Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer | Carson Field / Sooners On SI

Much of OU's season rests on Mateer's shoulders.

If his offseason work bears fruit, the Sooners will have one of the more talented and dynamic quarterbacks leading their team. If his flaws are too deep-seated to overcome, Oklahoma's road may be too harsh for their talent to overcome.

OU cannot afford another abysmal offensive season.

The 2024 season was the root cause of a bad offensive coordinator hire and a bust at quarterback. The next season was ruined by an injury to Matter.

In 2026, must see a significant jump from Mateer if OU is going to compete for its eighth national title.

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