Porter Moser Sees a Path for Oklahoma, But What Exactly Needs to Happen for March Madness?

"What pride you guys have," Porter Moser told his players following the 80-64 victory over Missouri on Monday's senior night. "Playing your best basketball. You believe in a path when no one else sees a path.

"Why not Oklahoma?" he asked.

Yes, the Sooners went on a nine-game losing streak during conference play. Yes, there were a few blowouts, blown leads and a popcorn machine blow-up, but darn it, the Moser effect is again in play.

What's the Moser effect? They won't go away.

For the third season in a row, his team is playing its best basketball of the year at the absolute right time. One could argue that the “right time” was a month or two ago, but if the “right time” refers to the stretch when you can either play your way into the NCAA Tournament or out of it for good, Moser’s squad is doing exactly that.

Oklahoma Sooners, Porter Moser — Oklahoma coach Porter Moser | Carson Field, Sooners On SI

The path that Moser refers to begins simply with a non-negotiable: Oklahoma has to leave Austin Saturday evening with a victory.

Last year, the Sooners did just that when they defeated Texas in the regular season finale before winning a game in the SEC Tournament. Those final victories were enough to squeeze OU back into the NCAA Tournament for the first time since Lon Kruger's tenure.

While Saturday's matchup with Texas is a must-have game for OU, they'll likely need more than one win in the SEC Tournament in order to wear the blue NCAA patch on their jerseys afterwards.

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Another analogy for last season was that ESPN's bracket guru Joe Lunardi had the Sooners as one his "last four out" teams prior to Oklahoma's Red River Rivalry part two. Their win and subsequent win over Georgia in the SEC Tournament helped propel them past their 6-12 conference record.

Right now, OU is better described as one of "last eight teams out," needing more than a win or two to return to the tournament.

But, should Moser's team get a victory in Austin, here's what may need to happen if Oklahoma wants to go dancing.

If the season ended right now, OU is a 12 seed in the conference tournament. They would be matched up with Mississippi State, who bludgeoned the Sooners 72-53 in early January. Oklahoma would have to avenge that loss—while MSU won going away, it was a two-possession game with six minutes left until Bulldog guard Josh Hubbard went off for 12 of his game-high 30 points from there.

Oklahoma Sooners, Nijel Pack, Arkansas Razorbacks, Darius Acuff Jr. — Oklahoma guard Nijel Pack dribbles past Arkansas' Darius Acuff Jr. | Carson Field, Sooners On SI

If OU navigates its first round game, they'll meet No. 7-seed Texas A&M, whom OU dropped both games to by a combined 11 points. It wouldn't be an insurmountable task to hope the Sooners could maintain their best basketball-play and upset the Aggies.

Now, Oklahoma is 8-2 in their last 10, winning six in a row—they have to be in now, right?

Within that 10-game run, OU would only have two quadrant one wins (at Texas and Texas A&M). The Sooners are currently 3-9 in quadrant one matchups. Considering the hole they dug for themselves, they may very well need to eke out one more win in the SEC Tournament to truly feel good about their dancing privileges.

Are three wins in conference tournament play impossible? Of course not. Considering the way Moser's teams rarely quit—getting spanked fair and square is a different story—gives them a chance in any outing. Individual player experience from Nijel Pack to Mo Wague helps those chances.

But it all begins on Saturday. If OU wins against Texas, you can start working scenarios in your head. If not, pray for a 2007-08 Georgia run.