The Final Prediction: Ole Miss Basketball vs. Michigan State Spartans in Sweet 16

The Rebels enter Friday's clash with an Elite Eight appearance on the line, looking to pull off the upset in Atlanta.

Mar 1, 2025; Oxford, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi Rebels head coach Chris Beard reacts during the first half against the Oklahoma Sooners at The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Chris Beard and the No. 6 seeded Ole Miss Rebels will square off against the Michigan State Spartans on Friday night in Atlanta (Ga.) with an Elite Eight appearance on the line.

Beard and the Rebels will take on Tom Izzo's crew State Farm Arena with tip-off set for 6:09 p.m. CT. on CBS.

"Got nothing but respect for Coach Izzo and Michigan State, Hall of Fame coach, have followed his teams my whole career. We have a drill that we've done every day since 1999 at Fort Scott, Michigan State rebounding. The college basketball game is better because of Coach Izzo's time in the sport. Look up to him," Beard said on Thursday.

"We try to build our programs over the years, so a lot of things in Michigan State in mind. This year's team at Michigan State is a really good team, obviously Big Ten champion for a reason. Definitely have an identity. The defense and rebounding are real. I think this team has a really good offensive transition to get the ball from A to B as quick as anybody we've played all season.

"I think it's strength in numbers too. It's a real team, eight, nine, ten deep. Looks like they got great role definition. It's hard to prepare for a team like this that doesn't have one set leading scorer. They can play inside and out."

A look into ESPN's predictions and how to watch the anticipated matchup come Friday night in Atlanta.

Preview: No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 2 Michigan State Spartans

The Start Time and How to Watch:

Start Time: 6:09 p.m. CT on Friday, March 28
Channel: CBS
Location: Atlanta (Ga.)

Dick Vitale's Pick: Michigan State

Interesting matchup btw @MSU_Basketball & @OleMissMBB as Spartans r a terrific defensive team - lead nation in shutting down the 3 ball as teams shoot only 27% from 3 vs MSU . Ole Miss is 3rd nationally in lowest turnover rate.Spartans advance 70-65!

— Dick Vitale (@DickieV) March 28, 2025

ESPN Analysts Make Their Picks

The picks are in. ESPN analysts Keff Borzello, Myron Medcalf and Joe Lunardi have logged their predictions for which program they believe will come out on top this weekend in Atlanta.

Borzello's Pick: Michigan State 72-69
Medcalf's Pick: Michigan State 75-70
Lunardi's Pick: Michigan State 70-65

Medcalf dove into his reasoning behind picking the Spartans on Friday night in Atlanta.

"Over its first two NCAA tournament games, Ole Miss made nearly half of its 3-point attempts. Michigan State, the top 3-point defensive team in America, will try to prevent Ole Miss from continuing that form.

"Besides that, Tom Izzo's squad dominates on the offensive glass, and Spartans guard Jase Richardson will be the best player on the court. It all adds up to a Michigan State win. -- Myron Medcalf"

Which player will Ole Miss need to keep tabs on? Medcalf details:

"He will overperform for the Spartans in this one. [Tre] Holloman has gotten into a rhythm late in the season, recording double figures in four of Michigan State's past five games. The Spartans went 4-1 in that stretch. -- Medcalf "

ESPN BPI's Pick: Spartans Take Control

ESPN BPI Predictor: Michigan State
ESPN BPI Predicted Point Differential: 3.5
ESPN BPI Win Probability (Iowa State): 64.5%
ESPN BPI Win Probability (Ole Miss): 35.5%

What is the ESPN Basketball Power Index?

"The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is," according to ESPN.

"Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's W-L record is to achieve. Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day's rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections. Numbers update daily."

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