Oregon Ducks Women's Basketball's Updated NCAA Tournament Projection

Following their Big Ten Tournament loss to the Michigan Wolverines, where do the Oregon Ducks stand in the latest bracketology projections?

Oregon women's coach Kelly Graves look for a call from the officials during the second half against Michigan at Matthew Knight Arena Dec. 29, 2025. | Chris Pietsch/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Oregon Ducks women’s basketball team’s Big Ten Tournament run came to a close on Friday night with an 80-58 loss to the No. 3-seeded Michigan Wolverines in the quarterfinal round at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.  

As the No. 11 seed in the Big Ten Tournament, the Ducks earned wins over the No. 14-seeded Purdue Boilermakers and the No. 6-seeded Maryland Terrapins in the first two rounds to make an impressive run to the quarterfinals. 

Oregon Ducks guard Ari Long (14) smiles while running to the bench Thursday, March 5, 2026, during a Big Ten women's basketball tournament game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The Oregon Ducks defeated the Maryland Terrapins, 73-68. | Grace Smith/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Wolverines, however, proved to be too much for the Ducks as guards Syla Swords (17 points) and Olivia Olson (16 points) led the Wolverines to victory. In the loss, Oregon guard Katie Fiso led the Ducks, scoring 22 points, seven assists, and four rebounds, shooting 10-of-16 from the field. 

Oregon's NCAA Tournament Projected Seed Following Michigan Loss

Oregon Ducks head coach Kelly Graves high-fives Oregon Ducks forward Mia Jacobs (1) on Wednesday, March 4, 2026, during a Big Ten women's basketball tournament game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. | Grace Smith/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

With the loss, the Ducks now await their selection in the NCAA Tournament as they currently post a 22-12 overall record and went 8-10 in the Big Ten. After a run to the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals, the Ducks could have a higher seed than expected. 

Following the Ducks' quarterfinal loss to Michigan, Oregon is projected to be a No. 8 seed in the tournament, according to ESPN’s Charlie Creme’s latest NCAA Women’s Bracketology projections. 

Oregon’s first round opponent in Austin, Texas, is projected to be the No. 9 seed Virginia Tech Hokies, who recently fell to the No. 16-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels in the ACC Tournament Quarterfinal, 85-68. 

The Hokies hold a 23-9 overall record and finished 12-6 in ACC play, as they await to hear their names called on Selection Sunday on Mar. 15. The winner of the projected Oregon-Virginia Tech first round matchup will likely face the No. 1-seeded Texas Longhorns, who are currently scheduled to play the No. 24 ranked Ole Miss Rebels on Saturday night in the SEC Tournament Semifinal. 

Can Oregon Make a Run In NCAA Tournament?

Oregon guard Katie Fiso moves the ball up the court as the Oregon Ducks face the Washington Huskies on Feb. 15, 2026, at Alaska Airlines Arena in Seattle, Washington. | Alec Dietz/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Ducks have what it takes to beat the Hokies in the first round, but taking down Texas and advancing to the Sweet 16 will require Oregon playing at a high level. Last season as a No. 10 seed, the Ducks narrowly lost to the No. 2-seeded Duke Blue Devils, 59-53, in Durham in the second round.

That game featured Oregon leading by five at halftime before the Blue Devils got in a rhythm offensively in the third quarter of the Ducks' second-round loss. Potentially playing the Longhorns in the second round of this year’s tournament will require the Ducks to start fast and make the Longhorns uncomfortable early on in the game.

Oregon has been led this season by guard Katie Fiso (15.3 points per game) and Ehis Etute (12.6 points per game), and their performances will be the key to leading the Ducks on a run to the second weekend of the tournament.

Forward Mia Jacobs is another player who could fuel a Ducks tournament run, as her talent can't be ignored. Jacobs is averaging 12.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 1.7 assists per game for the Ducks this season. Oregon last reached the Sweet 16 in 2021, before falling 60-42 to the No. 2-seeded Louisville Cardinals. 

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