New Analytics Rankings Should Excite Oregon Ducks Fans

In the latest power rankings from ESPN's Football Power Index, the Oregon Ducks still sit at No. 3 behind the Ohio State Buckeyes and Indiana Hoosiers, giving Oregon fans some reassurance as the calendar turns to November.

Oct 25, 2025; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning instructs players during the first half against the Wisconsin Badgers at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) has the Oregon Ducks ranked as the No. 3 team in the country, as the advanced analytics suggest that Oregon is still one of the elite teams in the country despite the early loss to Indiana. The FPI uses data harvested by using expected points added in offense, defense, and special teams.

The Ducks a 29.8 percent chance to win their final four games of the regular season, per ESPN's FPI. Oregon goes on the road to face Iowa in week 11, and then they will finish their regular season with Minnesota and USC at home, with a regular season finale set to take place in Seattle against Washington in late November. 

Oregon's Chances at Big Ten Title

Oct 11, 2025; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning arrives with players before the game between the Indiana Hoosiers and the Oregon Ducks at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

One of the more interesting takeaways from the newest release of the FPI is the 3 percent chance that Oregon was given to win the Big Ten conference. Since Oregon lost to Indiana at Autzen Stadium in week 7, the Hoosiers have been given a straightforward road to the Big Ten championship game. The Hoosiers hold a 45 percent chance to win the Big Ten, while the Ohio State Buckeyes have been handed a 49 percent chance. 

FPI Suggests Ducks Make CFP Even With Two Losses

Oct 18, 2025; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning looks on during the first half against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

The FPI was able to answer perhaps a question that a lot of Ducks fans may have on their minds: Can a two-loss Oregon team sneak into the College Football Playoff?

The answer is most likely. The FPI has Oregon at a 29.8 percent chance to make the CFP, but they have also given the Ducks a 76.9 percent chance to make the college football playoff, meaning that if the Ducks should end their 2025 regular season with two losses, the ESPN FPI still thinks they would have a very good chance to make the CFP. 

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Oregon Ducks vs. USC Trojans

Oct 11, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley (wearing white visor) celebrates along with defensive end coach Shaun Nua after kicker Ryon Sayeri (48) hit a 54-yard field goal in the second half against the Michigan Wolverines at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Out of the top-ten teams in the FPI Index, four of them are Big Ten programs, three are SEC, one is from the Big-12, and Notre Dame makes up the lone independent program. USC checks in as the fourth Big Ten team in the top ten of the FPI, and the Trojans hold a 17.3 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff.

USC will visit Autzen to play the Ducks on November 22, with the game potentially being a top-15 matchup, depending on whether both the Ducks and Trojans win their two games leading up to the game against each other.

The Ducks currently have 16 percent chance to make the national championship, and a 7.1 percent chance to win their first-ever national championship, per ESPN. Ohio State and Indiana have the two best percentages to win the national championship, checking in with a 25.8 percent chance and 26.2 percent chance, respectively.