Advanced Analytics Predict Oregon Ducks vs. James Madison

The No. 5 Oregon Ducks will be taking on the No. 12 James Madison Dukes in the first round of the College Playoff on Saturday, Dec. 20. Kickoff at Autzen Stadium is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. PT and the game will be broadcast on ESPN.

What do the analytics say about this matchup?

Oregon vs. James Madison FPI Prediction, Preview

Oregon Ducks James Madison Dukes College Football Playoff FPI Score Prediction Betting Odds Autzen Stadium Eugene Dan Lanning — Oregon head coach Dan Lanning walks the sideline as the Oregon Ducks take on the Washington Huskies on Nov. 29, 2025, at Husky Stadium in Seattle, Washington. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Oregon an 88.2 percent chance to knock off James Madison. The Ducks are the No. 3 ranked FPI team in the Big Ten with a rating of 25.2. They are only behind the No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers and No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes. James Madison is the highest rated FPI team in the Sun Belt at 9.9.

Oregon comes into this game with a record of 11-1. The Ducks last played on Nov. 29 against the Washington Huskies. They won this game by a final score of 26-14. Oregon is led by quarterback Dante Moore, who is projected to be one of the first players taken in the 2026 NFL Draft if he decides to turn pro. Moore has thrown for 2,733 yards and 24 touchdowns this season.

James Madison on the other hand enters this playoff with a record of 12-1. The Dukes took down the Troy Trojans in the Sun Belt championship game, 31-14 in their last game. JMU’s lone loss this season was on the road to the Louisville Cardinals, 28-14. They are led by dual-threat quarterback Alonza Barnett III, who has thrown for 2,533 yards and 21 touchdowns while rushing for 544 yards and 14 touchdowns this season.

Oregon vs. James Madison Betting Odds

Oregon is a 21-point favorite over visiting James Madison according to DraftKings Sportsbook. The Ducks have odds of -2100 to win outright while the underdog Dukes are at +1100.

The current over/under is at 47.5 points.

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Oregon vs. James Madison Score Prediction

Oregon has to be pleased with the path they have in the playoff this season. After three weeks off, the Ducks will be able to host one final game at Autzen Stadium against a team that they should be able to take care of. If they win, they will advance to the playoff quarterfinals against the Texas Tech Red Raiders.

The Ducks have been getting hot late in the season and they hope that momentum is still going after the three week layoff. JMU has been a great story in college football, but going on the road to Eugene and even just keeping this game close will be a tall task. Oregon coach Dan Lanning will keep the pedal on the metal all game long. Ducks cover and advance to the next round.

Oregon 42, James Madison 17

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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