Oregon Ducks' Playoff Chances Take A Hit Ahead Of Rutgers

The No. 8 Oregon Ducks are dusting themselves off from a 30-20 loss to now-No. 3 Indiana.

ESPN recently released their chances for each team in the top-25 of the AP Poll to make the College Football Playoff. Before the season began, the Oregon Ducks were given just a 57.5 percent chance to make the CFP by ESPN.

ESPN has currently given Oregon a 64 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff. While much more than just a coin-flip chance, the 64 percent isn’t exactly confidence-boosting for Ducks fans to see. The 10-point loss to Indiana obviously hurts the Ducks as much as it helps the Hoosiers, as Indiana has been given a 93 percent chance to make the college football playoff.

Ranked Opponents On Oregon's Schedule

As of the end of week 7, Oregon has just one ranked opponent left on their schedule, the No. 20 USC Trojans. The Penn State Nittany Lions falling apart after the Oregon win in Happy Valley has done the Ducks no favors - as their “best win” now has three losses on their schedule and a fired coach in James Franklin.

Oregon Ducks Dante Moore Dan Lanning Dakorien Moore USC Trojans Indiana Curt Cignetti College Football Playoff — Oct 11, 2025; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning instructs his team from the sideline against the Indiana Hoosiers during the third quarter at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

Penn State’s home loss to Northwestern, following its defeat at UCLA, has tightened Oregon’s path the rest of the way. If the Ducks were to fall to USC at Autzen Stadium in November, there’s a chance they could finish the regular season without a win over a ranked opponent.

Oregon Ducks Still Have Potential "Trap" Games Ahead

Should the Ducks go on to beat USC in November, it wouldn't necessarily solidify them as a College Football Playoff team. A tricky road game to Kinnick Stadium to face Iowa still looms for the Ducks, and their season finale against bitter rivals Washington could prove to be a “win or go home” game for both the Ducks and the Huskies.

The Ohio State Buckeyes top the list with a 95 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff, followed by the Indiana Hoosiers with a 93 percent chance. The Ducks are the next Big Ten team percentage-wise at a 64, with USC the last Big Ten team in the AP top-25 poll, with the Trojans holding a 30 percent chance to make the CFP.

The good news is, the Ducks say the loss to Indiana was a wake up call.

“Most definitely (a wake up call). We haven't, to that point, really lost a game and things like that. So, just finally, going against a really good opponent in Indiana, you just give credit to them and their game plan, what they came out to do. They got us,” Oregon receiver Malik Benson said.

“But you know, it's a long season, and just luckily, we're not in the era where it's four-team playoffs. So, one loss doesn't define the season, and we're just gonna make us more hungry.”

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MORE: Oregon Ducks Quarterback Dante Moore Reveals What Went Wrong In Loss To Indiana

Should the Ducks win out, there is no doubt they will be in the College Football Playoff; should they lose once more, their chances at being able to compete for the biggest prize in college football would depend entirely on whether their loss is to a ranked USC team or a loss at home against Wisconsin.

It is possible the loss will help Oregon in the long run, should they reach the College Football Playoff. Last year’s team that went undefeated had to sit around for three weeks before playing in the Rose Bowl game, ultimately losing to Ohio State.