Oregon Ducks’ Playoff Odds Offer A Twist Before Ohio State

The Oregon Ducks are rolling into their premier matchup against the No. 11 Ohio State Buckeyes with momentum. Oregon took down another AP Top-25 team, the No. 20 Northwestern Wildcats, and finally found an offensive rhythm.

But the 34-26 win doesn’t change the fact that a 6-2 Buckeyes squad vs. a 5-3 Ducks team presents a much different matchup than their No. 1 and No. 2 preseason rankings suggested. While Ohio State’s postseason ambitions are still alive, Oregon’s three losses may not have eliminated it yet, at least according to the ESPN Football Power Ranking (FPI).

Oregon Ducks coach Dan Lanning | Darby Winter

Oregon Ducks’ College Football Playoff Hopes Not Dead Yet

The Ducks are No. 12 in the Week 10 ESPN FPI. The FPI still gives Oregon a chance, albeit a low one, to make the College Football Playoff at 4.2 percent. Additionally, Oregon is provided a 2.8 percent chance to win the Big Ten, a 0.4 percent chance to make the National Championship and a 0.2 percent chance to win the National Championship.

What’s notable about the FPI is that its favorable ranking of Oregon, even with the turbulent first two months of the season, could still set the Ducks up for a postseason berth if the committee sees it the same way. After all, the 2026 college football season has already featured a plethora of twists and turns.

Oregon defensive lineman Matayo Uiagalelei | Darby Winter

The No. 5 UCLA Bruins and the No. 6 Indiana Hoosiers are the only two teams in the Big Ten with less than two loses. Oregon would need to win out and hope that a few other games outside its control go its way.

The Ducks’ strength of schedule appears to give them the benefit of the doubt. Every Oregon opponent so far, except the Portland State Vikings, is ranked within the top 50 of the ESPN FPI. Five of the Ducks’ first eight opponents have also been ranked inside the Top 25 at some point in 2026.

So the chances of the Ducks playing anything besides a bowl game in December might seem like a pipe dream, but if the selection committee sees it the same way as the FPI, it's not impossible. Either way, it adds to the stakes of the upcoming game in Columbus.

Big Ohio State Buckeyes Matchup on the Horizon

The Buckeyes narrowly lost a 24-23 battle against the Texas Longhorns on Sept. 12 but bounced back in dominant fashion. It seemed that Ohio State was going to be a difficult team to beat a second time down the stretch of the season, especially after defeating the Hoosiers 19-15.

But an unranked USC Trojans team that just came off an upset loss against the Wisconsin Badgers continued the chaos in the Big Ten by taking down the Buckeyes 30-18.

Ohio State now enters the game against Oregon in a similar situation the Ducks were in after losing to the Bruins – a loss could end its hopes of returning to the CFP. The Buckeyes still have games against Northwestern, Nebraska and Michigan left on the schedule.

Oct 31, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day reacts against the Southern California Trojans at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

For Oregon, its remaining schedule after Ohio State is against three teams below it in the Big Ten standings (Michigan, Michigan State, Washington), with two of those coming at home.

The Ducks’ only two wins against the Buckeyes come in the last two regular season meetings, with last one at Autzen Stadium and the 2021 meeting in Columbus. Ohio State did, however, get the best of the Ducks the last time out in a 41-21 victory in the 2025 Rose Bowl.

Ohio State at home, coming off its second loss of the season, is a dangerous matchup, but Oregon now has the opportunity to play spoiler for other teams' postseason desires.

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