Oregon vs. USC Could Change Both Teams’ Playoff Chances Dramatically

EUGENE - The No. 20 Oregon Ducks and No. 12 USC Trojans will face off in a rivalry clash that has some seriously College Football Playoff implications for a September game.

The Ducks fly south to play USC in the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum for the first time since 2019. Oregon has wind at its back after dominating the Portland State Vikings, 84-0 last Friday. But the big question remains: can the Ducks replicate that success against an undefeated USC team that has its own championship goals and one of the most dominant quarterbacks and freshmen classes in the nation?

Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore usc trojans college football playoff dan lanning lincoln riley los angeles colisuem — Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore | Darby Winter

Oregon and USC enter Saturday’s Big Ten matchup with the same chance to reach the College Football Playoff. They could leave the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum with very different paths to get there.

Oregon's College Football Playoff Chances

ESPN’s Playoff Predictor has Oregon and USC with the same 21 percent chance to reach the CFP entering the game.

An Oregon win would raise the Ducks’ chances to 32 percent, while a loss would drop them to 7 percent. For USC, a win would lift its chances to 35 percent, while a loss would leave the Trojans at 9 percent.

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning, left, and USC head coach Lincoln Riley shake hands before the game as the Oregon Ducks host the USC Trojans on Nov. 22, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The predictions make Saturday night more than an early conference test for Oregon. A loss would give the Ducks two losses before they have worked through a difficult remaining schedule. It doesn't mean the Ducks wouldn't make the CFP with a defeat to USC but it does show how quickly Oregon’s margin for error could shrink.

A win would jump Oregon's odds of making the CFP by 11 percent, showing how imporant a road win over an unbeaten, top-15 opponent would be for its playoff resume.

The good news is, Oregon faces two more ranked teams during its regular season slate and those games would be able to help swing its postseason hopes even further. The Ducks travel to Columbus to face No. 7 Ohio State on Nov. 7 and host the No. 18 Michigan Wolverines the next weekend on Nov. 14. The Ducks also face tough unranked opponents, traveling to Illinois and hosting the Washington Huskies.

USC is unbeaten at 4-0 but its remaining schedule is just as tough. After hosting Oregon, the Trojans face the Washington Huskies, travel to No. 13 Penn State and Wisconsin, host No. 7 Ohio State and later visit No. 5 Indiana. That helps explain why even one loss would bring USC’s projected playoff chance down to 9 percent.

"As intense as it gets."

Oregon vs. USC is shaping up to be an all-timer.

The Ducks are 9-0 in Big Ten road games. Will the streak continue on Saturday night?https://t.co/ny7ZDqBPPU pic.twitter.com/LAILf5QPQ6
— Bri Amaranthus (@BriAmaranthus) September 23, 2026

Oregon coach Dan Lanning recognized just how intense the rivalry is.

"Yeah, it's as intense as it gets, right? When you talk about two teams that arecompetitive, that want to be really good, that have great talent, it means a ton to the fan base. I think it's only grown - in my time since I've been here, that it means a lot to our team," Lanning said.

What a Loss Would Mean for Oregon

Oregon has already experienced how one result can change the tone of a season. Its upset loss at Oklahoma State put pressure on a team that entered the year ranked No. 2 in the AP Top-25 Poll. The Ducks are fresh off an 84-0 win over Portland State gave them a chance to reset and refocuse before conference play.

But will Oregon carry its momentum and "storm L.A.?" The Ducks are looking to continue a 9-0 winning streak in Big Ten road games.

Saturday is an opportunity for Oregon to answer questions left by the Oklahoma State loss.

USC starts fast, something the Ducks struggled with in their first two games of the season. The Trojans have led at halftime in all four games, outscoring opponents 106-24 in the first half. Oregon cannot afford to spend the first half playing catch-up at the Coliseum, which is sold-out by the way.

Oregon's defensive line was expected to be one of the best in the nation in 2026 after returning starters from a dominant 2025 season. The Ducks held Portland State to 103 total yards but USC is a different animal.

Oregon Ducks transfer koi perich usc trojans college football playoff dan lanning lincoln riley los angeles memorial coliseum — Oregon Ducks transfer koi perich | darby winter

USC’s quarterback Jayden Maiava leads the nation with 1,173 passing yards and 12 passing touchdowns through four games. Certainly, Oregon’s defense faces its biggest passing test yet.

Oregon Ducks defensive lineman Aydin Breland assessed the strengths of Maiava after "bloody Tuesday" practice.

“Just his ability to make plays. He'll have a lot of pressure on his face and he'll scramble and he'll still find a way to throw it and get the ball downfield and they'll come up with the catch. So we just got to do our best in caging him and rushing him effectively," said Breland.

“I feel like we've schemed it up pretty well," Breland said. "We just got to keep watching film and just everybody has to be dialed on our game plan and just know the looks we're getting. And just like I said, be gap disciplined and sound and play our brand of football.”

One team will leave the Coliseum with a major win for its résumé. The other will have to navigate the rest of a difficult season with a much narrower path to the playoff.

Oregon and USC kick off Saturday at 4:30 p.m. PT on NBC. Ducks fans are encouraged to wear white.

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