Oregon's Path to the College Football Playoff: Is the Pac-12's Mediocrity Hurting the Ducks?
The Pac-12 finally has a contender for the College Football Playoff. Oregon is the highest-ranked team in the country outside of the Southeastern Conference and is far and away the best team in the conference, at least through three weeks.
The rest of the conference, however, has been one heaping pile of mediocrity and confusion. It's a league in which anybody can beat anybody on any given Saturday, and while it's entertaining to watch late into the night, there's no telling how damaging that can be for a team atop the league like Oregon, that's looking to battle its way into the College Football Playoff.
It's easy to say that the win against Ohio State in Columbus is what will guide the Ducks to the playoff for the first time since 2015. Ohio State hasn't looked like the Ohio States of old, but Ryan Day still has one of the most talented teams in the sport.
But without that win, I don't think Oregon could build a resumé strong enough to get to the playoff without some significant help from the teams losing ahead of it. The rest of the Pac-12 has struggled to get out of the non-conference schedule unscathed as Oregon is the lone undefeated team entering conference play this week.
There has been a lot of talk about how Oregon could get back to the College Football Playoff now that a win over Ohio State is in play. It's very early in the season and many teams that could be in the playoff mix two months from now are still finding their stride - Oklahoma, Clemson, and Texas A&M come to mind. Let's rummage through some possible scenarios.
Let's say Oregon goes undefeated and wins the conference championship game in Las Vegas. The Ducks' best wins (in no particular order) would be at Ohio State, at Stanford, at UCLA, and whoever they beat in the conference title game. If the Ducks go undefeated, it's hard to imagine a team passing them in the CFP rankings from behind, UNLESS a currently ranked SEC team wipes out Alabama and/or Georgia.
Arkansas plays Alabama and Georgia, as well as Texas A&M, Ole Miss, and Auburn. If the Razorbacks are undefeated, they would have a great case to pass Oregon. Texas A&M plays Arkansas, Alabama, Ole Miss, and Auburn, and is already ranked No. 7. Ole Miss and Florida could even be in the mix, but the Ducks would have to win unconvincingly for the CFP committee to consider moving them down a spot.
It also depends on how Ohio State does the rest of the year. If the Buckeyes are a 7-5 team, Oregon's undefeated season won't be as impressive in the eyes of the CFP committee. Look instead at a potential one-loss Texas A&M or Arkansas team whose only loss would be to Alabama.
Realistically, the Ducks should be a lock for the playoff, but they should keep a close eye on the SEC schedule to see if its spot is really secure and to see if an SEC bias within the CFP committee is real.
Now let's say Oregon is a one-loss conference champion. I think the Ducks' most likely loss on their schedule is to UCLA or Stanford (Stanford has played spoiler in several of Oregon's seasons in recent memory and could definitely do it again). There is still a good chance that the Ducks are in contention for a playoff spot, but I think they would much rather have a loss to Stanford than UCLA.
The Ducks face Stanford in week 5 and UCLA in Week 8. A week 5 loss would give the Ducks more time to climb back up in the rankings. The strength of schedule after the UCLA game drops off immensely. At the same time, losing to Stanford, a Pac-12 North team, could be dangerous because there could be a scenario where Stanford has a tie-breaker over Oregon and takes the division.
But if the Ducks lose to UCLA, they could likely see the Bruins again in Vegas and get revenge, similar to how the 2014 Ducks lost to Arizona and then dominated in the rematch in the conference title game.
And again, it may sound like a cop-out answer, but it depends on the SEC and those other surprisingly wild-card teams like Clemson and Oklahoma. Iowa is also a team to keep an eye on.
If the Ducks lose twice, they won't be in the playoff. There has never been a two-loss team in the four-team bracket, so let's just discard that idea.
One loss for the Ducks doesn't necessarily equal a playoff elimination, but it does make the path much more difficult. They would have to win much more convincingly, and the argument could be made that they need to do the same to get into the playoff with or without a loss.
There's no telling what the CFP committee sees as a "convincing win" or a "good loss," so the Ducks just need to take care of business and dominate every team in their path.
Easy enough, right?
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