Updated Big Ten Championship, National Championship Odds: Oregon Ducks Snubbed?

The ESPN Power Football Index (PFI) has been released for the 2025-26 College Football Season, and the Oregon Ducks are in the mix according to the Index’s probability to win the Big Ten, and even win the national championship.

The ESPN PFI has given Oregon a 19.1 percent chance to win the Big Ten Title next season. At a nearly one-in-five chance, the Ducks trail only the Penn State Nittany Lions (25.1 percent) and Ohio State Buckeyes (40.3 percent) in probability. For reference, the FPI correctly predicted Oregon to win the Big Ten last year, with Ohio State and Penn State behind the Ducks.

Dan Lanning amidst a crowd of Ducks — Coach Dan Lanning celebrates amid a crowd of fans on the field as No. 3 Oregon knocked off No. 2 Ohio State 32-31 on Saturday at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Oregon has been handed a 4 percent chance by the FPI to win the College Football Playoff National Championship this season. While Ducks fans may scoff at that number, the FPI has been less successful in predicting national champions. Just last season, the FPI predicted a Georgia vs. Oregon national championship game, neither team would make an appearance. In fact, the eventual champions Ohio State were given the fourth best odds.

Oregon, who was given a 12.9 percent chance to win the national championship last season, has seen their percentage drop to just 4.3 percent for the 2025 season. Could the Rose Bowl loss have affected the percentage drop coming into the new season? It’s certainly a possibility. Perhaps the most likely possibility is that Oregon quarterback Dante Moore is still a (relatively) untested quarterback who has not seen a lot of game time in his college career so far.

Egbuka making a catch during the rose bowl — Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Emeka Egbuka (2) catches a pass over Oregon Ducks defensive back Nikko Reed (9) during the first half of the College Football Playoff quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif. on Jan. 1, 2025. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Ducks were given a 75.6 percent to make the 12-team playoff last season, which was the second best odds, only trailing Georgia’s 78.7 percent. Oregon’s percentage this season has dropped from that 75.6 mark to nearly a coin flip, with the Ducks being handed a 57.5 percent chance to join the 12-team field next year, an 18.1 percent decrease from last season.

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An interesting note that Ducks fans should consider, Oregon, with a 57.5 percent chance to make the 12 team playoff, is predicted by the ESPN FPI to go 10-2 in the regular season. Does this mean the ESPN FPI think a 10-2 Big Ten team could potentially get left out of the College Football Playoff? The Ducks certainly won't be favored to win in Happy Valley when they visit Penn State, but what other game could trip them up and hand them the second loss that the FPI is predicting?

Oregon Ducks cheerleaders smile for a group photo Sunday, Dec. 8, 2024, after the Big Ten Championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The Oregon Ducks defeated the Penn State Nittany Lions, 45-37. | Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

USC at Autzen Stadium on November 22 could be a possibility. The Trojans have been hard at work on the recruiting trail as of late and could field a team much different and more developed than the 7-6 USC team of last year that famously lost to both Minnesota and Maryland.

The Ducks will be looking to prove the FPI wrong in the 2025 season, which gets started with back to back home games at Autzen stadium on August 30 against an FCS foe in the Montana State Bobcats, and one week later against Big 12 opponent Oklahoma State.