Updated Big Ten Projections: Where Do Oregon Ducks, Ohio State, Penn State Land?

The Big Ten Conference got even bigger in 2024 with arrival of the Oregon Ducks, USC Trojans, UCLA Bruins and Washington Huskies.

The Ducks saw immediate success in the new conference, winning the Big Ten Conference Championship in their first season. While the program looks to build off the 2024 season, the Ohio State Buckeyes come off a National Championship victory and teams like the Penn State Nittany Lions improved their rosters in the offseason.

ESPN reporter Bill Connelly used predictive metrics to determine where teams rank in the Big Ten and which matchups hold the highest stakes.

Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning celebrates Saturday, Dec. 7, 2024, during the Big Ten Championship game between the Oregon Ducks and the Penn State Nittany Lions at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The Ducks defeated the Nittany Lions, 45-37. | Grace Smith/Indianapolis Star / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Oregon Included In Best Games Of 2025

Perhaps the Ducks’ most anticipated game this fall comes on Sept. 27 against the Penn State Nittany Lions. Connelly listed it among his top 10 games of the season, which included eight conference matchups and two non-conference games.

While the Nittany Lions find themselves listed three times (also having matchups against loaded Ohio State and Indiana squads), Oregon’s week 5 road game is the only time it finds itself on the list.

Oregon Ducks running back Noah Whittington (6) carries the ball Saturday, Dec. 7, 2024, during the Big Ten Championship game between the Oregon Ducks and the Penn State Nittany Lions at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The Ducks defeated the Nittany Lions, 45-37. | Grace Smith/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Neither the Ducks nor their conference foes are predicted to play a top-50 opponent prior to the matchup. Oregon’s first four games are against Montana State, Oklahoma State, Northwestern and Oregon State, with three of those being at home. Penn State starts the season with four straight at home, with Nevada, Florida International and Villanova being the first three games.

It'll be the sixth time the Ducks and Nittany Lions meet, and the first in regular-season Big Ten play. Penn State leads the series 3-2 all-time, but Oregon won the previous meeting 45-37 in the 2024 Big Ten Championship.

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Where Ducks End Up In Big Ten Rankings

Oregon went an undefeated 9-0 in the Big Ten a season ago and the Ducks are among the four teams listed as contenders for the conference title and the College Football Playoff. The Buckeyes and the Nittany Lions sit at the top of the list, while the Michigan Wolverines also join them as contenders.

The Ducks are 35-6 under coach Dan Lanning over the past three seasons. They're projected to have 10.1 average wins and go 7.3 in the Big Ten in 2025 by Connelly. He notes that the program has only lost to teams that won the National Championship or finished as the runner-up the past two years: Ohio State and Washington.

Aug 31, 2024; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore (5) warms up before the game against the Idaho Vandals at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images | Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images

But Lanning’s team is undergoing a lot of roster changes, including a new starting quarterback in Dante Moore. Connelly shared his thoughts on the redshirt sophomore, who had mixed results in his true freshman season with the Bruins.

“Moore stumbled in a freshman audition with Chip Kelly's UCLA and studied behind Oregon's 2024 starter, Dillon Gabriel, for a season. Reading back through his high school scouting reports, you see things like ‘high floor’ and ‘safe bet’ a lot, which brings to mind a lot of what we said about Gabriel. Stein's offense features lots of quick, easy passes, and Moore will be the point guard for a receiving corps featuring both some semi-proven veterans.”
Connelly

On the defensive side of the field, Lanning returns linebackers Bryce Boettcher and Teitum Tuioti, as well as EDGE Matayo Uiaglalelei. The Ducks also add star power to their secondary in former Purdue safety Dillon Thieneman, Ole Miss transfer Jadon Canady and Northwestern transfer Theran Johnson.

Oregon Ducks linebacker Teitum Tuioti against the Liberty Flames — Jan 1, 2024; Glendale, AZ, USA; Oregon Ducks linebacker Teitum Tuioti (44) against the Liberty Flames during the 2024 Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

But four defensive starters from 2024 were drafted into the NFL, while several other starters transferred.

“I'm concerned about the (defensive) line,” Connelly wrote. “Veteran Bear Alexander should join junior A’Mauri Washington in the starting lineup, but the rotation will otherwise be filled with youngsters.”

Lanning’s younger starters and transfers will have a lot to prove this fall to take the Ducks back to the conference title game. With the Indiana Hoosiers set to be the program’s main challenge outside of Penn State in the regular season, the schedule may bode well for a younger team, while the likes of Penn State and Ohio State have to play each other and more of the Big Ten’s top schools.