Penn State's Drive to the NCAA Tournament Starts Now
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Before beginning a two-game road trip, Penn State coach Micah Shrewsberry noted the sharp divide between how his team shoots at home and on the road. The Lions must close that divide, however possible, Shrewsberry said.
"If we can get that little bit of magic [on the road], that might be the difference between us getting in the NCAA Tournament or not," Shrewsberry said.
After an 80-60 loss at No. 1 Purdue on Wednesday, Penn State dances precariously on the bubble.
Ken Pomeroy lists the Lions at 47th in his rankings. The NCAA NET rankings dropped Penn State three spots to 56th. And ESPN's Joe Lunardi had the Lions among his "last four in" before the loss to Purdue. Afterward, he had them among his last four out.
The Lions (14-8, 5-6 Big Ten) haven't played in the NCAA Tournament since 2011 but would have in 2020. Though their window to return remains open, the Lions can't afford further cracks.
Can Penn State make the NCAA Tournament this season? The team will begin answering that question in earnest Sunday at Nebraska.
Like most teams, Penn State is different on the road. The Lions are 11-1 at the Bryce Jordan Center and 1-5 in true road games. Further, they're shooting 48.9 percent (41.4 percent from 3-point range) and averaging 78 points per game at home.
But those numbers fall to 42.8/33.7/67 in true road games, where the Lions are 1-5. When it visits Nebraska at 4:30 p.m. EST on Sunday, Penn State needs a road win. Which means it needs to shoot significantly better.
In particular, the Lions have been shaky recently from 3-point range, which represents their offensive soul outside of Jalen Pickett. They went a combined 15 for 55 from 3-point range at Rutgers and Purdue, both 20-point losses. Getting back on track requires a long-range upgrade against the Cornhuskers.
It can be done. Penn State shot 68 percent from the field in the second half to defeat Nebraska 76-65 in December. But that game was at home, where the Lions are more comfortable. That's important, since Penn State has little margin of error at the BJC.
To position themselves for the NCAA Tournament, the Lions likely need to finish with a .500 Big Ten regular-season record. To do that, they absolutely need road wins over Nebraska (3-9 Big Ten) and Minnesota (1-0).
Then they most likely will need to sweep their remaining four home games vs. Wisconsin, Illinois, Rutgers and Maryland. That would leave some leeway in remaining road games at Maryland, Ohio State and Northwestern.
Penn State's road to the NCAA Tournament begins in earnest Sunday in Lincoln, Nebraska. As Shrewsberry said, the team has to play with offensive purpose, which means Pickett being creative, the Lions' shooters getting open and, more importantly, making shots when they are.
"It's no secret," Shrewsberry said, "but we have to do it every time."
Penn State (14-8, 5-6) vs. Nebraska (10-13, 3-9)
When: 4:30 p.m. ET Sunday
Where: Lincoln, Nebraska
TV: Big Ten Network
Streaming: FuboTV (start your free trial)
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AllPennState is the place for Penn State news, opinion and perspective on the SI.com network. Publisher Mark Wogenrich has covered Penn State for more than 20 years, tracking three coaching staffs, three Big Ten titles and a catalog of great stories. Follow him on Twitter @MarkWogenrich. And consider subscribing (button's on the home page) for more great content across the SI.com network.
