5 Games That Will Decide Penn State's 2026 Season

On a very friendly schedule, the Nittany Lions have five dates that will determine their postseason chances.

Penn State Nittany Lions head coach Matt Campbell watches spring practice at Beaver Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Penn State is less than a month from training camp, which means the 2026 season isn't far behind. The Nittany Lions and head coach Matt Campbell make their debut together Sept. 5 against Marshall at Beaver Stadium.

Those first three games (against Marshall, at Temple and at home vs. Buffalo) usher in a 2026 schedule that most first-year coaches would love. Penn State doesn't play the Big Ten's top three teams (Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana) during the regular season and also skips out on Iowa and Illinois.

So where does the stress come from? Here are Penn State's five toughest games, ranked from bottom to top.

5. Minnesota at Penn State: Nov. 14

Minnesota Golden Gophers head coach PJ Fleck on the field before a game against the Northwestern Wildcats at Ryan Field. | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

From 1999 to 2019, Minnesota has decided several promising Penn State seasons. This year's meeting, the first at Beaver Stadium since 2022, punctuated the Nittany Lions' most difficult five-game stretch.

Minnesota's preseason FPI ranking (63rd) isn't terribly intimidating, and coach P.J. Fleck might be gone by Nov. 14 if the season derails early. However, the Gophers return a good bit of their offense, and defensive end Anthony Smith is one of the Big Ten's best.

4. Penn State at Northwestern: Oct. 2

Northwestern Wildcats head coach David Braun celebrates with fans after his team’s victory against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Wrigley Field. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

David Braun and the Wildcats were the last straw in 2025 for Penn State Athletic Director Pat Kraft, who fired James Franklin the day after the Nittany Lions' 22-21 loss at Beaver Stadium. It was the last trap game Franklin coached for Penn State and could be the first for Campbell.

Braun steered Northwestern to a 7-6 record last year and then made two interesting offseason hires. He brought in offensive coordinator Chip Kelly and quarterbacks coach Jerry Neuheisel as his quarterbacks coach. Penn State fans certainly know Neuheisel, UCLA's interim offensive coordinator whose quarterback-run strategy stunned the Nittany Lions at the Rose Bowl last year.

There's also the game itself. Penn State will visit Northwestern for a Friday-night game to open the new Ryan Field, whose 35,000 seats should be full and loud.

3. Penn State at Washington: Nov. 7

Washington Huskies head coach Jedd Fisch holds the LA Bowl championship belt presented by Rob Gronkowski after defeating the Boise State Broncos at SoFi Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Who's ready for some Sailgating? Penn State's first visit to Washington since 1921 is among the team's most difficult games to gauge this season. It follows a bye week and a home game against Purdue, but also consecutive games against USC and Washington.

The Huskies are one of three nine-win teams Penn State will face this season. Coach Jedd Fisch has a roster of talent similar to Penn State's, led by returning quarterback Demond Williams Jr., who nearly transferred out. Washington is a bear at home, so this game should be close to a pick-em.

2. USC Trojans at Penn State: Oct. 10

USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley celebrates on the sideline during the second half against the Michigan Wolverines. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Speaking of pick-ems, that's how DraftKings currently lists the Penn State-USC game. Interesting, since it most likely will be the 2026 Penn State White Out. Campbell's team could be 5-0 entering the game, while USC coach Lincoln Riley has to go through Oregon and Washington to get to Beaver Stadium undefeated.

USC is the Big Ten's outsider to make a CFP run this season, as Riley has one of his better teams led by second-year quarterback Jayden Maiava. Riley also dipped into his budget to replace defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn, hiring former TCU head coach Gary Patterson, who has been off for the past three seasons.

1. Penn State at Michigan: Oct. 17

Michigan Wolverines head coach Kyle Whittingham runs across the field during the spring game at Michigan Stadium. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The Nittany Lions already are 6.5-point underdogs at Michigan Stadium, where two coaches transforming big-brand programs will meet. Campbell and Michigan's Kyle Whittingham are the Big Ten's most intriguing newcomers, though Whittingham didn't have deal with the high-rate turnover that Campbell went through.

The Wolverines (14th in the SP+, three spots ahead of Penn State) hope to give quarterback Bryce Underwood a fresh start with a new coordinator, but the defense might need a month or so to stabilize. Good thing for them that they host Penn State in mid-October.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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