Expectations for Penn State Football in 2026 Might Be Tempering

The Nittany Lions might be a top-20 team, but are they a playoff team?

Penn State Nittany Lions head coach Matt Campbell looks on from behind the line of scrimmage during the Blue-White Spring practice at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Matt Campbell has said that he embraces the high expectations of being the Penn State football coach. And initially, his hiring lifted those expectations. However, they could be cooling a bit.

FanDuel has adjusted its regular-season wins total for the Nittany Lions in 2026, lowering the over/under line to 8.5 games. Penn State is still favored to beat that total, with the over line at -138 and the under at +112. Yet the wins total is lower than in March, when FanDuel initially set the number for Penn State at 9.5.

At the time, Penn State was tied for third with Ohio State for the highest projected wins total. Defending national champ Indiana and playoff semifinalist Oregon topped the list then at 10.5. Michigan and USC were at 8.5.

But in a recent update, Penn State's wins total fell to 8.5 while Ohio State's remained at 9.5. Michigan and USC also are at 8.5. The 9.5 might have been too aggressive a number for a Penn State team that has 55 new players, including 40 transfers.

Though On3's Brett McMurphy has Penn State in his early College Football Playoff field, Penn State is +450 to make the playoff, wedged between SMU and Louisville in the FanDuel odds. In addition, Penn State isn't among the top tier of Big Ten title contenders. FanDuel sets Penn State's odds to win the Big Ten title at +2,700, well behind Ohio State (+190), Indiana (+260) and Oregon (+280).

Notably, however, Penn State does not have to play any of those teams this season. The Nittany Lions' highest-ranked opponent, according to CBS Sports' post-spring rankings, is USC at No. 14. Penn State was 18th in CBS' spring poll.

Why 8.5 is the right number for Penn State

Penn State Nittany Lions running back James Peoples (23) runs with the ball during the Blue-White Spring practice at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

An 8.5 regular-season wins total seems more balanced for Penn State post-spring, considering how much went untested during spring drills. About 30 Nittany Lions either didn't practice or were limited during spring drills, including a host of potential starters in quarterback Rocco Becht, receivers Chase Sowell and Brett Eskildsen, linebacker Tony Rojas and multiple defensive tackles.

Though Campbell graded spring practice positively, the program nevertheless finished without answers to plenty of questions. And that early 9.5 wins total looked aggressive for a team that imported most of its offense from Iowa State, is installing a new defense under coordinator D'Anton Lynn and is figuring how to fuse those 55 new players with the 52 Nittany Lions who stayed.

"in the beginning it’s hard," Becht said after the final practice of spring. "You have to adapt to the Penn State players that stayed, what they're teaching and what they're preaching. We [the transfers] sat back and followed their lead. But we’re one team, we’re Penn State now. I’m excited to call each other Penn State and not call each other Iowa State transfers anymore."

Notably, however, the Nittany Lions aren't projecting this season as a rebuild. Terry Smith, Penn State's 2025 interim head coach who returned as associate head coach, said Campbell built a roster capable of winning now. Smith also invoked the process Curt Cignetti used to turn Indiana into an undefeated national champion in just two years.

"I think we were able to keep the core group of guys that we don't have to start from square one," Smith said. "Then the blended family that came from Iowa State, I think it's a perfect match. To be honest, it's almost like Curt Cignetti, when he brought the JMU guys to Indiana. We brought a great group of guys from Iowa State who have blended with our current Penn State guys."

Penn State Nittany Lions interim head coach Terry Smith is congratulated by athletic director Pat Kraft after a win over the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Campbell said he understands the expectations of winning a national championship at Penn State, which Athletic Director Pat Kraft made clear in December. Campbell also made clear that he wants to approach those expectations methodically.

"We know what the expectations are here at Penn State. It’s been laid for a long time," Campbell said. "You can’t have those expectations without the habits and the daily process it takes to get there. That’s what you’re going to hear me talk about. I know what the expectations are. I want those expectations. I have the same goals and our kids are going to have the same goals.

"... I know there’s a great foundation here with some great players. We’re going to have to do a great job of making sure those young men stay here and then build the right group around them and still not flinch away from development and recruiting high school players. Sacrificing the future for one day or one season, we’re really going to have to smarter than everybody and to walk a fine line."

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