Penn State Football vs. Buffalo Predictions: Top Picks for the Nittany Lions in Week 3

Here's how we see Penn State's game vs. Buffalo playing out at Beaver Stadium.

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Rocco Becht (3) looks to throw a pass during the first quarter against the Temple Owls at Lincoln Financial Field. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Penn State's friendly non-conference schedule ends Saturday, when the No. 14 Nittany Lions host Buffalo at Beaver Stadium. The storylines for Penn State-Buffalo center primarily on getting a lead, getting the starters off the field and getting out of the stadium without injuries.

The team might be more nervous about playing in front of Penn State's 1986 national-championship team, which is holding a 40th reunion at the game. Everybody get a selfie with honorary captain D.J. Dozier, John Shaffer and Shane Conlan.

In the meantime, here are our picks and predictions for Saturday's Penn State-Buffalo game, which kicks off at noon ET at Beaver Stadium.

Penn State-Buffalo score and game prediction

Penn State Nittany Lions receiver Chase Sowell celebrates a touchdown against the Temple Owls at Lincoln Financial Field. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Chase Fisher: Penn State’s defense didn’t allow a touchdown until there was 1:56 left in regulation against Temple in Week 2. And that was even without all its starters in. The Nittany Lions’ defense is dominant, and it’s hard to imagine this Buffalo offense, which hasn’t faced a ranked team since September 2024, getting anything going. Penn State should win comfortably. Penn State 48, Buffalo 3

Will Horstman: Coming in at No. 118 in the ESPN SP+ model, Buffalo is the lowest-ranked team on Penn State’s schedule. The Nittany Lions should cruise to an easy win to close out their non-conference schedule, and I’d expect them to have a performance similar to its Week 1 rout of Marshall instead of the slow start against Temple. Penn State 52, Buffalo 6

Mark Wogenrich: Buffalo has allowed 590 passing yards in two games vs. Albany and FIU, so Penn State QB Rocco Becht should have a world of opportunity. But offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser wants his run game to find its footing, so he'll lean hard on Carson Hansen, James Peoples and (maybe?) Quinton Martin Jr. Longer possessions, fewer points, but still a comfortable win. Penn State 42, Buffalo 7

Who is the game MVP?

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Rocco Becht (3) runs with he ball during the fourth quarter against the Temple Owls at Lincoln Financial Field. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Chase Fisher: Buffalo wide receiver Chance Morrow has caught 18 balls for 218 yards and five touchdowns. Those five touchdowns are all five scores the Bulls have this season. Cornerbacks Daryus Dixson and Audavion Collins will likely draw Morrow on a majority of snaps. That cornerback duo, which has been as good as any duo in the Big Ten, will shut down Morrow and be co-MVPs. 

Will Horstman: Quarterback Rocco Becht is having a very productive start to his lone season at Penn State, and he should continue that this weekend. If the Nittany Lions take care of business in the first half, Becht should have multiple touchdown passes and rest for much of the second half. 

Mark Wogenrich: Running back Carson Hansen wasn't thrilled with his first two games, and neither was Mouser about the way he called them. Hansen capped his 2025 season at Iowa State with five straight 100-yard games. He gets his first at Penn State on Saturday.

Which player has a breakout game?

Penn State Nittany Lions wide receiver Zay Robinson (2) reacts after making a catch during the third quarter against the Temple Owls at Lincoln Financial Field. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Chase Fisher: Buffalo is fresh off a loss where it allowed 367 passing yards to FIU quarterback JJ Kohl. Penn State should be able to air it out against the Bulls defense — and wide receiver Brett Eskildsen should be a beneficiary. FIU wide receiver Jojo Stone caught a 68-yard touchdown a week ago against Buffalo’s secondary, and Eskildsen is due for a long touchdown given his speed. He gets at least one of those on Saturday and finishes with over 100 receiving yards and a touchdown.

Will Horstman: Receiver Zay Robinson was on the field for just six offensive snaps against Temple, but he still made three catches for 34 yards. As one of the main backups at receiver, Robinson should see an extended amount of playing time if the game goes as expected. This would allow Robinson the chance for more production, which would draw more buzz for the young receiver.

Mark Wogenrich: Penn State made just three sacks in the first two games, with defensive end Yvan Kemajou getting one. He's the line's top pass-rusher now with Max Granville out and will put Buffalo's passing game under duress for two sacks and at least two more hurries.

What's something unexpected we'll see Saturday?

Chase Fisher: Penn State has forced three turnovers this season: one fumble recovery and two interceptions. The defense has been stout, but most drives have ended in punts. That unit will more than double its current turnover mark, forcing four against a Buffalo offense that hasn’t faced a ranked defense since September 2024.

Will Horstman: Penn State’s defense contains Buffalo receiver Chance Morrow to under 50 yards. Campbell referred to Morrow as an “elite talent.” Morrow has powered the Bulls’ offense through two games, hauling in 18 passes for 218 yards and all five Buffalo touchdowns. After Morrow, it’s a sizable drop in production among Buffalo pass catchers. As such, Penn State’s defense will likely put the majority of its attention on Morrow, which would hinder his ability to generate yardage.

Mark Wogenrich: A special teams touchdown. Zay Robinson has tested the waters in breaking a punt return this season and ranks fifth in the Big Ten in average yards per attempt (12.6). Wouldn't be surprised if he hits a big one.

What will Penn State fans be talking about Sunday?

Penn State Nittany Lions head coach Matt Campbell looks on from the sideline during the fourth quarter against the Marshall Thundering Herd at Beaver Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Chase Fisher: Penn State fans will keep talking about Quinton Martin Jr., but still not for a good reason. The redshirt sophomore running back has carried the ball 10 times for 38 yards and a touchdown this season. He didn’t see an offensive snap against Temple a week ago, despite an inconsistent overall run game. If he’s not going to play against Marshall and Temple, he’s not going to play against Buffalo, unless he had a great week of practice. It’s hard to envision him garnering a key role on this offense barring injury, which would be a shocking statement to hear if you told me that three weeks ago.

Will Horstman: Can Becht continue his hot start in Big Ten play? Through two games, Becht has a passing efficiency rating of 227.51, which ranks fourth in FBS. He should be able to keep up his hot start to the season during the game against Buffalo. But with conference play starting next week, it remains to be seen how well Becht performs in Big Ten action.

Mark Wogenrich: That they still aren't sure what to make of the 2026 Nittany Lions. The non-conference schedule wasn't meant to generate real exterior insight into the team's progress. It was designed to generate three wins and playing time across the roster. The real season begins next Saturday against Wisconsin.

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