Reevaluating a Penn State Football Roster That Was Overvalued and Has Underachieved

The Nittany Lions have developed few game-changing players from their group of 40 transfers.

Penn State Nittany Lions head coach Matt Campbell reacts from the sideline during the fourth quarter against the USC Trojans at Beaver Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Michigan Stadium vibrated with boos Saturday night about its football team's coach, offense and quarterback. The Wolverines seemed willing to gift Penn State a rare road win in Ann Arbor with two first-half interceptions, an offense that generated 80 yards and a quarterback about to be benched.

But Penn State didn't have the playmakers to capitalize, extending the through line of its season. Quarterback Rocco Becht played his most impactful (and not positively) half of the year, the offense went quiet again in the red zone and the defense gave up Michigan's two longest running plays of the season.

Thus went Penn State's fourth straight loss, a 21-18 decision at Michigan Stadium that underscored simultaneously how close and far this team is from winning. In three of its four losses, Penn State has had either a fourth-quarter lead or the ball with a chance to tie or take the lead. In each case, the Nittany Lions couldn't close the deal.

Wisconsin scored two touchdowns in the last four minutes, the game-winner on a 72-yard touchdown catch by a 265-pound tight end. USC countered Penn State's three straight field goals with two second-half touchdowns, then forced a fumble on a 25-yard reception on Penn State's final offensive series.

And Michigan scored 21 second-half points off three Rocco Becht turnovers, punctuating the game with a fourth-quarter touchdown after a sack-fumble in Penn State territory. The Wolverines produced one score on a 43-yard rushing touchdown after gaining 37 yards in the entire first half.

"You’re right there to win the game," Penn State coach Matt Campbell said after the loss to Michigan. "You’ve got to win in the margins right now, for sure, and we’re not doing that."

Penn State isn't doing that because it doesn't have enough players who can change games. There's receiver Chase Sowell on offense (and maybe Koby Howard again when he returns), linebacker Tony Rojas on defense and a collection of interchangeable parts delivering effort but not impact.

Penn State's season has gone sideways because it doesn't have those players who take control of those margins. That suggests we may have overvalued Campbell's first Penn State roster, particularly the transfers, or those transfers simply haven't panned out.

Is it missed evaluations or underachieving players?

Penn State Nittany Lions head coach Matt Campbell watches the action against the Michigan Wolverines at Michigan Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

According to the 247Sports Composite, Penn State brought in the nation's fourth-ranked transfer portal class. While that science is difficult to peer review, the recruiting service graded Penn State's 40-player transfer class as deep and talented.

Nine players received 4-star transfer evaluations: Becht, Sowell, running back Carson Hansen, tight ends Ben Brahmer and Gabe Burkle, defensive end Caleb Bacon and safeties Marcus Neal Jr., Jeremiah Cooper and Jamison Patton. Brahmer was the No. 1 tight end in the transfer class, Becht was the No. 7 quarterback and Hansen was the No. 9 running back.

Campbell and his staff certainly weren't shy about their public evaluations. Campbell said that, before his 2024 injury, Brahmer was the nation's best tight end that year, when Penn State's Tyler Warren won the Mackey Award. Becht had found "another gear" after getting healthy for training camp. Left guard Trevor Buhr was Penn State's camp MVP.

They weren't alone in promoting the roster. Neal and Cooper brought three all-Big 12 awards with them to Penn State. Cooper was the 2022 Big 12 defensive freshman of the year, and Neal was getting preseason first-round draft evaluations.

Brett Eskildsen became Penn State's first receiver to make Bruce Feldman's college football "Freaks List." We wrote that college football might have been sleeping on Becht.

But among those 40 transfers from 17 schools (24 from Iowa State), only Sowell has emerged as a true game-changing player in the Big Ten. Sowell ranks third among Big Ten receivers in catches (26) and yards per game (96) in conference play and has two of the team's three touchdown receptions in the Big Ten.

Sowell also has six of Penn State's seven receptions of 25+ yards in Big Ten play. The other belongs to Brett Eskildsen, who fumbled after his 25-yard reception against USC in the fourth quarter.

Penn State Nittany Lions receiver Chase Sowell (0) makes a catch against Michigan Wolverines cornerback Smith Snowden (3) during the second half at Michigan Stadium. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Neither of Penn State transfer running backs (Hansen and James Peoples) has a carry of 10+ yards in Big Ten play. The foursome of Hansen, Peoples, Quinton Martin Jr. and Cam Wallace, which position coach Savon Huggins called formidable, average 2.96 yards per carry in conference play. Peoples, brought in from Ohio State for his explosive-play potential, has a long run of 9 yards in four conference games.

Generally, Penn State's best players are those who stayed. The best side of Penn State's line has been the right behind returners Anthony Donkoh and Cooper Cousins. Andrew Rappleyea has been the top overall tight end.

Rojas is the team's highest-graded player, and the returning cornerbacks of Audavion Collins, Daryus Dixson and Zion Tracy have been the defense's positonal highlight. In fact, Penn State moved Tracy from nickelback to safety the past two games, sitting Neal and Cooper for separate starts.

Defensively, the most impactful player Campbell brought from Iowa State might be freshman cornerback Josiah Zayas. After signing with Iowa State in December, Zayas followed Campbell, earned a Game 1 start and is tied for the team lead with two interceptions. One was a pick-6 against Wisconsin that gave the Nittany Lions a 10-0 lead.

But the biggest issue has been the quarterback.

Rocco Becht loses his big-play mojo

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Rocco Becht (3) throws against Michigan during the first half at Michigan Stadium. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Becht has never been a quarterback to set his completion-rate cruise control at 65 percent. He has 12 career games with a completion rate above 70 percent and eight of 50 percent or lower. He led the Cyclones to seven game-winning drives in three years, including one against Central Florida after throwing two interceptions (one for a pick-6) that led to 14 points.

But he hasn't added the boom to the bust at Penn State. Becht is 24-for-48 in four Big Ten fourth quarters, when he has committed three of his six turnovers. His completion rate in Big Ten games is 59.6 percent, his yards-per-attempt is 6.3 and he has thrown all five interceptions (with just three touchdowns) against conference teams. Becht also has not led Penn State to any real red-zone success.

The Nittany Lions have scored touchdowns on just six of their 11 red-zone possessions in the Big Ten. They settled for a first-quarter field goal in a three-point loss to Michigan and for two red-zone field goals in an eight-point loss to USC.

Ultimately, Becht hasn't been the quarterback he or Penn State's coaching staff expected. He also hasn't had the help from his transfer class that was either mis-evaluated or has underachieved. For Campbell, who's coaching mission is to coax his players to overachieve, that's been the defining point of this season.

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3-11 43 wisky

8-17-84 fumble michigan

10-14 nwest 2 interceptions nw

usc 3-7

24-

Hansen 37-109

Peoples 34-114

Martin 11-22

Wallace 2-4

84-