Why Penn State Is Primed to Deliver an Upset Against USC

Penn State football coach Matt Campbell said this week that his team has an identity problem. Bluntly, the Nittany Lions don't have one, or at least not the one they intended to establish this season.

In its two cornerstone proficiencies, running the ball and stopping the run, Penn State ranks 73rd and 110th nationally, respectively. In their next primary offensive proficiency, explosive plays, the Nittany Lions rank 86th nationally.

So what rationally would lead anyone to believe that Penn State could pivot so completely and upset No. 19 USC at home Saturday night? There are many model-based reasons, including Bill Connolly's SP+ at ESPN, which has the game at a virtual tie (USC has a 52-percent win probability with a rounded score prediction of 28-28).

But the simplest answer is this: Penn State has not played like itself for six quarters. Sooner or later, the team has to get out of its own head, its own way and its own frozen approach.

Saturday's the night. Here's why Penn State, still a 1.5-point favorite according to DraftKings, can upset the Trojans in the White Out at Beaver Stadium.

A favorable matchup vs. USC's defense

USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley looks on against the Washington Huskies at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. — USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley looks on against the Washington Huskies during the third quarter at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

USC coach Lincoln Riley bristled this week at questions about defensive coordinator Gary Patterson, whom he hired to replace D'Anton Lynn, now at Penn State. While Lynn moved to the sideline at halftime against Northwestern last week, Patterson moved upstairs against Washington. So everybody's having some adjustment issues.

The thing is, USC's defense has underperformed this year in multiple areas, notably with tackling and pass coverage. The Trojans rank 97th nationally in pass defense, allowing 8.7 yards per attempt, and have a passer rating near 155 in conference games. They can be had in the air.

Rutgers' Dylan Lonergan, who's completing 55.9 percent of his passes this season, went for 252 yards and three touchdowns against USC (albeit with two picks and a 50-percent success rate). The Trojans gave up 35 points to Rutgers, which otherwise averages 18 per game against Power 4 opponents.

Even without big-play threat Koby Howard, Penn State should be able to throw successfully against USC. Which brings us to...

Rocco Becht finds himself

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Rocco Becht (3) looks to throw a pass vs. the Wisconsin Badgers at Beaver Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Penn State's starting quarterback has pulled himself out of ditches before. In 2023, he worked through a sluggish start to his first season to go 27-for-38 for 348 yards and three touchdowns in a 34-27 win over Oklahoma State.

In 2024, Becht fought through a two-game losing streak to complete 24 of 33 passes for 234 yards and a touchdown to beat Cincinnati en route to the Big 12 title game. And last season, despite injuries to both shoulders and a miserable game against TCU, Becht went 18-for-23 for 241 yards and three scores in a win over Kansas.

This year, Becht has been two different quarterbacks against conference and non-conference opponents. He was among the nation's best in passer rating (215.3) through three games. In losses to Wisconsin and Northwestern, Becht has a 54.3-percent completion rate, one touchdown to three interceptions and an average yards-per-attempt of 5.1.

"I've been there before," Becht said. "... So for me it's digging back to that 2024 season. What did I do? What did I change to get out of that slump? And I think for me, it was coming to work every single day with a positive attitude.

"I didn't sulk on myself. I didn't go in there and say I was a bad quarterback. I went in there with positive vibes, positive vibes throughout the whole facility. And I think that just brings everybody up. Whatever I'm doing, that's what the whole team is going to be doing."

Becht has infinite self-belief. Whenever he combines that next with hitting receivers in stride, he'll be difficult to stop.

Penn State's strength vs. USC's strength

Best passing defenses through Week 5 (Def EPA/dropback vs. Def Pass Success Rate)

LSU clear #1 so far. Once again Georgia Tech just can't be normal.https://t.co/wxg9uCsOeJ pic.twitter.com/g1UMs8c40K
— Game on Paper (@gameonpaper) October 5, 2026

According to Game on Paper, Penn State's pass defense ranks among the nation's best in success rate and EPA (expected points added) on dropbacks. The Nittany Lions allow just 119.6 yards passing per game (albeit against teams that haven't thrown much) and have the lowest opposing passer rating (92.01) in the Big Ten.

Granted, the defense imploded last week at Northwestern, which chose to run a misdirection Wing-T style that flummoxed Penn State. The Wildcats ran for 413 yards with an offense that linebacker Tony Rojas called "weird." And yes, Penn State has yet to face a top-60 passing offense this season.

But USC doesn't have the time nor inclination to install the Wing-T, so it's going to play strength-on-strength, using its run game to set up quarterback Jayden Maiava, who has been mostly good this season.

USC has the nation's 12th-ranked passing offense (311.7 yards per game), and Maiava ranks second in the Big Ten in yards per game (290.7). But he's streaky, completing just 62.5 percent of his passes at Rutgers, and worked over time against Oregon (23-for-42, 326 yards).

Penn State's four-man pass rush has generated some intermittent pressure but few sacks (just two by the linemen). Maybe new starter Alexander McPherson can help off the edge. But the Nittany Lions' best position group is cornerback, led by Terry Smith, who got many of his 2025 guys to stay.

Smith also added freshman Josiah Zayas, who has a pick-6 and fumble recovery, to the room. Maiava vs. Audavion Collins, Daryus Dixson and Zion Tracy is the matchup of the night. It's also how Penn State wins this game and maybe gives Nittanyville a reason to rush the field.

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