Penn State vs. USC Game Predictions: Week 6 Stress Test for the Nittany Lions

Penn State somehow has maintained its favorite status over USC, despite losing consecutive Big Ten games in which it scored just three offensive touchdowns. The Nittany Lions still are 1.5-point favorites, according to DraftKings, over the Trojans, who left Thursday for the second Eastern Time Zone game this season.

Power of the Penn State White Out, evidently. The Nittany Lions certainly have some issues to fix, but USC hasn't been a demonstrative playoff contender, either. About those 35 points allowed at Rutgers...

Anyway, that's all preamble to what should be an entertaining game Saturday night at Beaver Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for jsut after 8 p.m. ET on NBC's Big Ten Saturday Night. Here's what we think will happen.

1. Penn State-USC game predictions

Nothing like it…

⚪️⚪️⚪️ pic.twitter.com/u5FBwUjC1c
— Penn State Football (@PennStateFball) October 7, 2026

Will Horstman: It’s difficult to trust Penn State after back-to-back disappointing losses to Wisconsin and Northwestern. Even with a White Out crowd behind the Nittany Lions, I don’t think Campbell will secure a win against his first ranked opponent this season as frustration from fans continues to build. USC 27, Penn Statge 17

Mark Wogenrich: Recency bias suggests that Penn State won't scored more than 14 points against the Trojans, who nevertheless rank 13th in the Big Ten in total defense (348.8 ypg). But the sense lingers that Penn State already has played its six worst quarters of the season and that QB Rocco Becht picks himself off the mat again. Penn State 26, USC 23

2. Who will be the game's MVP?

USC Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) passes the ball against the Washington Huskies at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Will Horstman: USC quarterback Maiava presents a new challenge for Penn State’s defense, as he’s the best passer the unit has faced so far this season. There’s been a lot of talk this week about what the run defense is doing to prevent another poor performance, but this game could be decided with Maiava and USC’s passing attack.

Mark Wogenrich: Penn State's Ryan Barker went from walk-on kicker to walk-off hero two years ago at USC. He's been more inconsistent this season, missing twice, but recalibrated Saturday with four field goals, including a late game-winner.

2. Who is the game's unsung hero?

Penn State Nittany Lions running back James Peoples (1) runs the ball against the Northwestern Wildcats at New Ryan Field. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Will Horstman: Linebacker Tony Rojas has continued to be the leader of Penn State’s defense despite the losing streak. He had 12 tackles (3.5 for loss), a sack and a pass breakup during the Northwestern loss, keeping him on pace to set new career highs in each of the categories this season. Expect Rojas to be a bright spot on defense regardless of the result.

Mark Wogenrich: Penn State likely won't run for more than 140 yards against the Trojans, but one back will carry an underrated role. James Peoples had a rough game at Northwestern (8 carries, 13 yards) and bounces back with some key third-down conversions in the second half to lead a straining Penn State offense.

Who throws for more yards: Penn State's Rocco Becht or USC's Jayden Maiava?

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Rocco Becht (3) looks to throw a pass against the Wisconsin Badgers at Beaver Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Will Horstman: Maiava ranks second in the Big Ten with an average of 290.7 passing yards per game. Meanwhile, Becht has struggled in the past two games and is averaging 178.5 passing yards against Big Ten opponents. It seems likely that Maiava would pass for more yards this weekend

Mark Wogenrich: The secondary will serve as the fulcrum of Penn State's victory. The Nittany Lions rank third nationally in passing defense (119.6 ypg), though they haven't faced a real passing threat. Maiava represents the first, and cornerbacks Audavion Collins, Daryus Dixson, Zion Tracy and Josiah Zayas shut him down. Becht, meanwhile, throws for a just-enough 225 yards.

5. What will Penn State fans be talking about Sunday?

Penn State Nittany Lions head coach Matt Campbell walks on the field after the game against the Buffalo Bulls. — Penn State Nittany Lions head coach Matt Campbell walks on the field after the game against the Buffalo Bulls at Beaver Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Will Horstman: This White Out game won’t feature a highly ranked Penn State team. It won’t feature a highly ranked opponent, either. So, if the Nittany Lions lose, this White Out could go down as one of the worst of all time, if not the worst. There’s the chance Campbell picks up his first ranked win against No. 19 USC, but if he doesn’t, this White Out likely would be forgotten about after the season.

Mark Wogenrich: Penn State coach Matt Campbell and his curved-bill hat lost some of their "We Are" luster the past two weeks. It's understandable, even though Campball has told fans since December that they'll have to confront adversity before achieving success. With a Penn State win, fans will celebrate the Campbell they expect, as AD Pat Kraft said, to "unite this community, energize our locker room, and restore our championship mindset."

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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