Texas A&M Upset Chances and Path to Victory vs Saint Mary’s

Texas A&M basketball is hoping to pull an upset against Saint Mary’s on Thursday evening, as the selection committee decided it wanted to see this matchup in the South region in Oklahoma City.

For the Aggies to play their best ball, it will start with having their best week of practice and dialing in on the film so the Gaels have no chance of pulling off the win against the SEC program.

Offensively, A&M has to have good guard play, and that has been one of the main contributors to having success. When the guards can get quality looks around the perimeter and knock down their shots, this team is unstoppable. When the shots aren’t falling, the dependability falls on the forwards, and that isn’t what this team always wants because of size.

Guard Play

The Aggies have four guards who have been the most consistent all season, and those four men include Pop Isaacs, Ruben Dominguez, Marcus Hill and Rylan Griffen. Going into Thursday’s matchup, the question remains: which ones are going to show up?

No one knows. It might be all of them. It might be none of them. Head coach Bucky McMillan needs them to be on their A game because it's an obvious win-or-go-home, and it could be the last time these guys all play together on a court.

Griffen has shot the ball the best from beyond the arc and is going to be part of the formula for getting this team heated up and cooking. He’s shooting over 40 percent from downtown and 46 percent from the field. Can he nail his shots on the biggest stage in the biggest moment of the season?

Another guy who has been a huge asset to this group is the NC State transfer, Hill, who was one of the reasons A&M stayed in the win column in the last couple of weeks when none of the other guards could buy a shot. Although he was quiet in the SEC Tournament, he hasn’t been all season as one of the sharpest shooters from the field, where he is going 49.6 percent.

Adding the Spanish Snipper, Dominguez, to the mix was also part of ‘Bucky Ball’ that likes to play up-tempo and fast-paced. Recently, the 6-foot-6 shooter from Puerto Real hasn’t been himself like his coach knows he can be.

At the beginning of the season, McMillan bragged about what he saw from him in practice and how dangerous he was when he touched the ball, noting that he had witnessed him never miss from three. That’s the type of player he is as a 40 percent shooter from three, and the one that his teammates need to show up on the national stage.

In the last four games alone, Isaacs has been in double digits and has been able to knock down his shots from several different places, including from three. The transfer from Creighton has been one of the go-to guys who has had to fill the shoes when others haven’t been able to make a bucket.

Before that stretch, he had five straight games where he was in single digits and wasn’t as big a contributor as the Aggies needed. Can Isaacs come off the bench and maneuver his way through traffic and deliver some clutch shots to advance the squad to the Round of 32?

Defense

To start the season, the big worry was how this team could step up on defense, especially after the loss to forward Mackenzie Mgbako. They certainly responded when the coach called them out after some disappointing outings and adjusted the areas that needed improvement, like half-court and full-court pressure.

Part of this team’s identity has been applying pressure when an opponent inbounds the ball, and that’s going to be one of the scariest things Saint Mary’s should fear. No team should want to face A&M’s defense when it has players in their face, with excellent hand and footwork, trying to force a turnover. The defense is also forcing opponents to have 13.6 turnovers per game, so that’s definitely a talking point going into the contest.

One of the departments the Aggies will want to really harp on is winning the rebound battle against a bigger team that will try to attack inside. As a defense, the Aggies are allowing 79.6 opponent points per game and are tallying 37.9 rebounds per game. Defensively, they are registering 23.8 defensive rebounds and are holding opponents' defensive rebounds to 24.1 rebounds per game.

Between the guard play and a good day on defense are a few of the paths for the Aggies to defeat the Gaels.

Tipoff is Thursday, March 19, at 6:35 p.m. on truTV.