What the Numbers Reveal About Texas A&M vs. Auburn Tigers

At last, SEC play has arrived. Texas A&M opens its conference slate on Saturday afternoon as Auburn heads to College Station for a 2:30 kickoff.

With Hugh Freeze’s reeling after a controversial 24-17 loss at Norman last weekend, the Tigers come into Kyle Field with a must-win mentality. The Aggies, meanwhile, haven’t forgotten last year’s 43–41 heartbreak against Auburn and will be eyeing payback in front of their home crowd.

While storylines and revenge angles make for good chatter, it’s often the numbers that tell the real story. Here’s a breakdown of the key stats and matchups that could decide Saturday’s showdown.

Auburn’s Top-Rated Run Defense

Auburn Tigers defensive lineman Keyron Crawford. — Auburn Tigers defensive lineman Keyron Crawford (24) as Auburn Tigers take on New Mexico Lobos at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, Ala., on Saturday, Sept. 14, 2024. | Jake Crandall/ Advertiser / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Tigers strength so far this season has been stopping the run. Through four games, Auburn leads the SEC in run defense, surrendering just one rushing touchdown all season while holding opponents to 1.86 yards per carry and 58.3 rushing yards per game.

Auburn limited Baylor to 64 rushing yards in the opener, buried Ball State with negative three yards, allowed 140 to South Alabama, and just last week held Oklahoma to 32.

Against the Sooners, the Tigers shut down a John Mateer–led offense that entered averaging 125 rushing yards per game to a quarter of that production. The veteran Tiger line is led by none other than junior Keldric Faulk, a projected first-round pick who’s already notched ten tackles, two sacks, and three tackles for loss while generating 15 pressures.

Faulk and company will be tasked with stopping a dynamic A&M offense. Many expected the Aggies to lean on their ground game this fall, but it’s been the passing attack that has been fully at display. Even so, A&M’s backfield remains loaded, and despite not yet firing on all cylinders, the Aggies are averaging 157 rushing yards per contest.

With Faulk getting most of the attention, keep an eye out on edge rusher Keyron Crawford. The senior already has 3 sacks, 18 tackles , a pick, and a forced fumble through four starts.

Pass Defense Remains Auburn’s Weak Spot

Auburn Tigers cornerbacks — Maryland Terrapins wide receiver Shaleak Knotts (4) has the ball knocked away by Auburn Tigers safety Terrance Love (16) and cornerback Kayin Lee (3) during the second half at Nissan Stadium. | Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images

While the Auburn run defense has been a strength, its pass defense has looked vulnerable. The Tiger secondary has given up 233 yards per game on 63 percent completion and six total touchdowns.

The cracks are clearest against Power Four competition. Baylor’s Sawyer Robertson torched the secondary for 419 yards and three scores, while Oklahoma’s John Mateer added 271 yards and a touchdown.

Next up is Marcel Reed, and unlike those quarterbacks, he has one of the deepest receiver groups in the SEC. All eyes might be on Auburn’s Cam Coleman and Eric Singleton, but the duo everyone should be talking about is Mario Craver and KC Concepcion.

Together, they’ve piled up 670 yards and seven touchdowns. Craver alone has 443 yards and four scores, matching Coleman and Singleton’s combined stats. Against a shaky Auburn secondary, those numbers could climb even higher.

Pass Protection Struggles

Auburn Tigers offensive lineman Jeremiah Wright. — Auburn Tigers offensive lineman Jeremiah Wright (77) and offensive lineman Connor Lew (75) block during the first quarter against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. Auburn won 48-10. | Brett Rojo-Imagn Images

If you haven’t heard by now, Auburn gave up 10 sacks to Oklahoma last week.

Although Mike Elko claims that human psychology would have the Auburn O-line be the best unit on the field against his Aggies, it is hard to overlook the Tigers’ struggles in the trenches.

The problems didn’t start in Norman. Against Ball State, Auburn gave up five sacks. They only allowed one sack against Baylor and one sack against South Alabama but the blueprint for disruption is there.

Not all of the blame falls on the offensive line, however, as many argue that quarterback Jackson Arnold has been holding onto the ball far too long. This recurring habit has drawn criticism and is something Elko is sure to take note of.

While the A&M pass rush doesn’t quite strike fear into offensive coordinator minds, it still has playmakers who can wreak havoc. Chief among them is Cashius Howell, the senior edge rusher who recorded a historic back-to-back-to-back sack performance in week 2 against Utah State.

With Auburn’s front reeling, Howell and company will have a prime chance to get back in the stat sheet on Saturday and look to turn the tide of the game.