The Season TCU Baseball Expected Never Arrived But One Door Remains Open

TCU entered 2026 with Omaha expectations and preseason hype. Now, after a frustrating regular season, the Horned Frogs head into postseason play with one final opportunity to rewrite how this year will be remembered.

TCU enters the Big 12 tournament as the seventh seed. | TCU Baseball on X @TCU_Baseball

From Omaha Expectations to Tournament Reality

Back on February 5th, TCU was voted atop of the Big 12 Preseason Poll, earning 169 total votes, 13 of which were first-place votes. Expectations were high; four players from TCU were on the Big 12 baseball preseason team: Chase Brunson, Noah Franco, and the unanimous choices of Tommy LaPour and Sawyer Strosnider. 

D1Baseball had the Frogs ranked at No.10 in the Preseason Top 25 and No.11 in the Perfect Game poll. The majority of the online preseason rankings had the Frogs inside the Top 25, with some room to grow.

After defeating No. 23 Vanderbilt at Globe Life, the Frogs looked to have lived up to the hype, but after brutal losses, injuries, and other issues, TCU finds itself wondering if the season can be saved. 

History Says the Regular Season Doesn't Always Matter

Regular seasons get forgotten about, postseason gets remembered. Any team that makes the postseason has a chance to win, with titles on the line. Every team gets a fresh start. In the past, TCU's regular season hasn’t foretold what the postseason held for the team. 

June 9, 2012; Los Angeles, CA, USA; UCLA Bruins outfielder Cody Keefer (not pictured) singles past TCU Horned Frogs infielder Kerek Odell (2) in the ninth inning of game two of the Los Angeles super regional at Jackie Robinson Stadium. UCLA won 4-1 and earned a trip to the college world series. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

In the Kirk Sarloos era, the 2022 TCU team won the Big 12 regular-season championship but ended up losing to Texas and then Oklahoma State in the conference tournament. The Frogs would then travel to play in the College Station Regional and fall to Texas A&M. 

In 2023, TCU finished fourth in the conference but went on to win the Big 12 tournament. After being seeded in the Fayetteville regional against the national No. 3 seed, Arkansas, TCU would punch its ticket to the Super Regional. Finally defeating Indiana State in Fort Worth to make the program's sixth College World Series appearance. 

After that historic season, TCU finished ninth in the Big 12 and missed the postseason entirely. 

2025 brought magic back to Lupton, finished 3rd in the conference, and made the championship game, losing to Arizona in extra innings. Another trip to Omaha on the line, TCU seemed primed for the opportunity, only to fall short in the Corvallis Regional. 

Learning anything over the years, TCU’s postseasons can be unexpected. 

Where Does TCU Draw the Line Between Failure and Redemption?

After a disappointing year, how can TCU make this season a success? The obvious answer is to win it all, but keeping expectations tame, where is the line that TCU needs to cross to redeem the 2026 team’s reputation? 

TCU is the seventh seed in the Big 12 tournament. New rules and a location make this year’s tournament hard to predict. TCU is making it past its first game in the second round; it's a must, but then a tricky match-up awaits in the quarterfinals. The Frogs would face No. 2 West Virginia, a rematch of the final regular-season series. If TCU had won that game and made the semifinals, the Big 12 tournament would have been a success.

TCU's Mason Brassfield pitched 5.0 innings in TCU's Sunday game against Kansas, giving up three hits and no runs while striking out seven players. TCU's sweep over Kansas vaulted the Frogs into the rankings in all polls this week. | Brian McLean - On Assignment Photo/TCU Horned Frogs On SI

In years past, the Big 12 tournament was a double-elimination bracket, but as more teams were added to the league, the rules had to change, and now it's a single-elimination tournament. Predicting TCU to make it past the Semi-finals would be a long shot, but if TCU can win a game or two, building momentum before the NCAA tournament would be a major win for the program. 

How Far Would TCU Need to Go to Change the Narrative?

Without knowing where TCU will be placed, this selection is tough. If TCU gets slated in a fair regional, then anything is possible, but a bad placement can drastically shift expectations. Regardless, TCU's performance in the regional will tell the story of this year’s team. If TCU goes on the road and puts up a fight against the three other teams, including the regional host, making it to the final game of the regional, it would be a satisfying ending to the season. 

Flashing back to last year, TCU had high hopes going into the Corvallis Regional. TCU dropped game one to the University of Southern California, 13-1. Then, they were matched up against the host team, Oregon State, and lost 7-2, ending their season. Last year’s ending left a bitter taste in fans’ mouths, and this was a solid season for the Frogs, but going out on a whimper like that was depressing. 

TCU looks to avenge last year's team in whichever regional they get slated to. 

Can Postseason Magic Save Another TCU Team?

TCU has been one of the premium programs in college baseball, and now they find themselves on the brink of back-to-back disappointing seasons. However, the postseason can act as TCU’s savior. Especially, in the new format of the Big 12 tournament, one missed ground ball or one swing can change a game’s outcome, and may the odds be on the Frogs' side. 

The Season Starts Over Now

Follow along here, KillerFrogs.com, for all the postseason madness the Frogs find themselves in. You never know where the postseason will take them. 

TCU will face the winner of Game 2, either No. 10 Utah or No. 11 Kansas State.