Predicting TCU Baseball's 2024 Season: Can Frogs Meet Lofty Expectations?
A season of disappointment was met with a season worth remembering. The 2023 TCU Horned Frogs toppled a loaded Fayetteville Regional then swept a Fort Worth Super Regional en route to another trip to the College World Series. Last year's team had plenty of promise, and they hit that ceiling, but expectations were tempered on a national scale.
After debuting at No. 5 in D1 Baseball's preseason rankings, there's no hiding.
Now, the hunters become the hunted, even in a loaded Big 12 Conference. All of a sudden, Omaha isn't the ceiling, it's the expectation.
TCU Horned Frogs pitcher Ben Abeldt (46) celebrates after defeating the Virginia Cavaliers at Charles Schwab Field Omaha.
Deserved Praise
The Horned Frogs don't come into 2024 inside the top five nationally across the board for no reason, this team is downright talented. Big 12 media selected TCU as the preseason favorite to win the conference, as well. Although many veteran players departed – namely Elijah Nunez, Brayden Taylor, Cole Fontenelle, and Garrett Wright – the Frogs return a cast of electric young players and loaded up with veterans in the transfer portal.
Ace Kole Klecker looks to add on to what was a nationally-acclaimed freshman year with another dynamic season. But he's not alone; Ben Abeldt, Anthony Silva, and the catcher duo of Karson Bowen and Kurtis Byrne are well decorated in their own right.
Like last year, we'll probably see Bowen and Byrne rotate appearances behind the plate and at first base. Ole Miss transfer Peyton Chatagnier comes in to man second, Silva returns at short, and third base is up for grabs between Pepperdine transfer Jack Basseer and true freshman Ryder Robinson.
The outfield fixes to have some new faces, notably true freshman Chase Brunson while junior Logan Maxwell (LF) and senior Luke Boyers (RF) return at the corners.
Top to bottom, the lineup is packed with talent and potential. The rotation got stronger and deeper. And the most exciting part of it is: most of the key contributors are juniors or younger.
TCU Baseball Positional Previews
Check out in-depth looks at all three position units here:
TCU Baseball Schedule: Another Gauntlet
Every year, TCU packs a tough schedule. The baseline comes from a Big 12 filled with contenders like Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech, plus rising teams like Kansas State and expected rebound potential from Baylor.
In the new Big 12 – the first year including BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF – TCU no longer plays every conference foe. But the scheduling gods didn't give the Horned Frogs any slack. They face all of the top seven in the preseason media poll (Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Kansas) and only avoid projected bottom teams like UCF and BYU.
The April stretch of series vs. Texas Tech, series at Texas, midweek vs. Dallas Baptist, and series vs. Kansas State proves to be TCU's most difficult run, although much of that is played in the friendly confines of Lupton Stadium.
But the non-conference is packed with tournament teams and conference contenders like Dallas Baptist, Florida Gulf Coast, Texas State, and UCLA. The Bruins also landed in D1 Baseball's top 25 poll (22nd), and DBU and Texas State annually exceed expectations.
Once again, TCU won't go untested.
Strengths & Weaknesses
The TL;DR is, TCU has many strengths and not many weaknesses.
The Frogs' biggest strength this season comes defensively and in the depth of their rotation. With the exception of a vacancy on the hot corner, all of the starting fielders are above-average defenders; some are even exceptional. The stability in having a fairly-well defined eight starters cannot go for granted.
Few middle tandems nationally surpass the defensive prowess of Silva and Chatagnier. And, of course, having two premier catchers puts TCU well ahead of most teams in the country.
Thanks to a busy transfer class of arms, TCU's pitching rotation went from a question mark to a huge strength overnight. Chase Hoover and Louis Rodriguez both return as likely relief pitchers while Arkansas' Zack Morris and West Virginia's Ben Hampton bring loads of experience.
Perhaps the most exciting addition to both the mound and the plate is Wichita State transfer Payton Tolle – a premier two-way player. With the Shockers, Tolle started 15 games as a pitcher (9-3 record, 4.62 ERA) and tallied 13 home runs (.311 batting average). He brings a wow factor sure to turn heads this spring.
However, TCU isn't invulnerable. The biggest weakness for this team is power at the plate. Only Byrne returns 10+ home runs from last year's team, with the bulk majority exiting with program-leader Brayden Taylor. Silva returns the second-most (seven) and Boyers and Bowen combined for 13.
Tolle should be helpful in that department, as should Basseer. Junior Brody Green returns after a couple of seasons struggling to break the starting lineup, but his 6-foot-4 frame also provides a ceiling of being a very good power hitter. The freshman Brunson also has potential, but there are lots of homers needing to be replaced in this lineup.
Especially as conference play begins, TCU's offense may stagger against better arms.
TCU Baseball Season Prediction
The first month of non-conference play is critical to TCU's success. Not falling behind and dropping games to teams like Arizona State and USC will go a long way this season. UCLA will be a challenge early on, as will a Tuesday stint with Texas State, but TCU must enter Big 12 play with no more than two losses.
Heading into the Big 12 slate at 11-2 or better puts the Frogs in a good position. Every team goes through a dead period of the season – even last year's Omaha squad dropped 8-of-10 for a stretch and finished conference play at 13-11. But the Frogs shook the cobwebs off and finished the season strong.
Perhaps a more quiet but possibly pivotal stretch comes between March 28-April 10. This run of Houston-UTA-Cincinnati-UTRGV comes sandwiched between Oklahoma-Oklahoma State and the Tech-Texas-DBU-Kansas State gauntlet. Going a perfect 9-0 is almost a must here, otherwise the Frogs will watch their Big 12 rivals fly by.
The bottom line is, TCU again is good enough to beat any team in the country on any given day.
Last year, the Frogs went 37-22 in the regular season (we projected 42-18). I wholeheartedly believe they improve on that mark.
Season Prediction: 40-20, Super Regionals
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