TCU Men's Basketball Preview: At Cincinnati

The Frogs are looking for four straight wins with a Quad 1 opportunity Saturday.

Feb 8, 2025; Ames, Iowa, USA; TCU Horned Frogs head coach Jamie Dixon watches his team play the Iowa State Cyclones during the first half at James H. Hilton Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-Imagn Images | Reese Strickland-Imagn Images

TCU (15-11, 8-7 Big 12) will play at Cincinnati (15-11, 5-10 Big 12) Saturday at 11 am CT.

The Frogs come into this game in the middle of real NCAA Tournament possibilities for the first time all conference season. They have won five of their last six and three straight heading into this one.

A win for the team from Fort Worth would be their fourth straight Big 12 win, something they have done only once, in 2017.

TCU’s win over No. 9 Texas Tech makes three Big 12 wins in a row.

The Frogs have a chance for four straight Big 12 wins Saturday for the second time ever (2017). pic.twitter.com/gRSdjUArRp

— Nick Girimonte (@GirimonteNicky) February 19, 2025

The Bearcats record does not tell the full truth about this team. Wes Miller's team currently has a NET rating of 47 entering this game, making this a Quad 1 opportunity for Jamie Dixon's squad and a big chance to boost their resume.

Although they will most likely be underdogs, here are some keys to look for if the Frogs want to pull off the upset.

Make it Ugly

Feb 12, 2025; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs center Malick Diallo (32) and Oklahoma State Cowboys guard Davonte Davis (4) react during the first half at Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images | Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Everyone who has watched TCU men's basketball this season knows that offense is not their strong suit. The Frogs rank last in the Big 12 in offensive efficiency on KenPom.

However, the defense of the Jamie Dixon's team has been very strong. The Frogs rank 28 of 364 teams in defensive efficiency on KenPom. Specifically, TCU defends the three well, ranking third in the Big 12 in 3-point defense, allowing 31.2 percent from beyond-the-arc.

Overall, Cincinnati usually plays a pretty clean game, ranking second in the Big 12 with just 10.2 turnovers per game, especially at home where the Bearcats have won the last two.

If the Frogs' defense can disrupt this Cincinnati offense and force some turnovers, they should be in a good spot to keep this game ugly and close in the end.

TCU is 9-1 in games decided by five or fewer points as well, so if this game is close yet, there is confidence a player like Noah Reynolds or Vasean Allette will make clutch plays late for the win.

cardiac frogs pic.twitter.com/g1OYhmaFkz

— TCU Men's Basketball (@TCUBasketball) February 20, 2025

Another fantastic finish would fit right into this magical run for the Frogs.

Rebounds Win

Feb 8, 2025; Ames, Iowa, USA; TCU Horned Frogs center Ernest Udeh Jr. (8) dunks against the Iowa State Cyclones during the second half at James H. Hilton Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-Imagn Images | Reese Strickland-Imagn Images

The formula has been simple for TCU: Win the rebound battle, then you win the game.

The Frogs are 10-1 in games where they out rebound their opponent. That includes out rebounding all of their last three opponents in their three-game win streak.

TCU outrebounded No. 9 Texas Tech 37-29.

The Frogs are now 10-1 when outrebounding their opponent. pic.twitter.com/wLCazuVVLn

— Nick Girimonte (@GirimonteNicky) February 19, 2025

Specifically, starting center Ernest Udeh Jr. ranks eighth in the Big 12 with seven rebounds per game and has five double-double on the season.

His starting front court mate David Punch also contibutes heavily on the glass. The TCU big is one of five freshman in the Big 12 averaging at least 5.0 (6.0) points and 4.0 (4.3) rebounds.

If they can out rebound a mediocre Bearcats rebounding team, the Frogs will have a good shot to take one Cincinnati Saturday.

Start Fast

Feb 12, 2025; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs guard Noah Reynolds (21) celebrates with TCU Horned Frogs guard Vasean Allette (3) after scoring during the second half against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images | Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

The constant theme in TCU's blowout losses on the road has been the slow starts, as seen in games like Iowa State and UCF. However, in their last road win at Arizona State, a fast start propelled the Frogs to the win.

If the Frogs carry this lead until halftime, they are 11-1 on the season.

TCU led No. 9 Texas Tech 37-29 at the half.

The Frogs are now 11-1 this season when leading at halftime. pic.twitter.com/nxFXVtPcZT

— Nick Girimonte (@GirimonteNicky) February 19, 2025

Although the Frogs like to play close games, if they do push a lead to double-digits, they rarely lose. TCU is 13-1 in games this season when leading by 10 or more.

TCU is 13-1 when leading by double digits this season.

The one loss came to Kansas after the Frogs were up 14. pic.twitter.com/S4eqjvuIT4

— Nick Girimonte (@GirimonteNicky) February 21, 2025

With the momentum the Frogs are carrying into Cincinnati, there seems to be a bigger likelihood they are able to start fast and get into a comfort zone.

This is not a must win, but where TCU is outside the NCAA Tournament picture on the bubble as we speak, this would be massive for their pitch to the committee on Selection Sunday.

How to Watch, Listen and Stream: TCU vs. Cincinnati

Tipoff - 11 am CT, Saturday, February 22nd

Television - ESPN2

• Play-By-Play: Brian Custer
  Analyst: King McClure

Radio - : Talk Radio 1190 AM KFXR

• Play-By-Play: Brian Estridge
  Analyst: Colin Boddicker
  Online: Varsity App, GoFrogs.com
  SiriusXM: 380

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