Where TCU Women's Basketball Sits in Conference Standings, Latest Bracketology Projections

February has arrived, and with it comes more conversations surrounding conference title races and NCAA Tournament projections. No. 14 TCU women’s basketball (20-3 overall, 8-2 Big 12) is in position to defend its Big 12 Conference title and make the tournament as a top-4 seed, but everything is very fluid at this point in the season.

Current Big 12 Conference Leaders: TCU and Baylor

Despite the loss at No. 18 Texas Tech over the weekend, TCU remains tied atop the Big 12 standings with No. 15 Baylor. Baylor picked up its second conference loss at No. 20 West Virginia on Sunday.

This gridlock will start sorting itself out when TCU travels to Waco on Thursday, Feb 12. Baylor then visits Fort Worth to close out the season on Sunday, March 1. Last year, that season finale took place in Waco as a winner-take-all pseudo-championship game. The Horned Frogs emerged victorious and beat the Bears for the second time that season. (TCU also beat Baylor in the Big 12 Tournament the following week to take the tournament title, too.)

Pulling off another season sweep would be historic and go a long way toward helping TCU capture the Big 12 regular-season title, but more than likely, each team will win a game in this series. Baylor, like every other Big 12 team, is going to give TCU its best shot. Dealing with that night in and night out wears on a team.

The bigger issue for both the Horned Frogs and Bears, though, might be the losses they suffered this past weekend.

Very Much Still in Contention: Texas Tech, West Virginia, Oklahoma State

Texas Tech, West Virginia and Oklahoma State each only have three conference losses. The Red Raiders and Mountaineers’ recent victories put them in prime position to sneak into the top spots if they keep winning and TCU and/or Baylor lose again.

Keep in mind, Texas Tech and West Virginia do not play TCU and Baylor respectively again this season and now hold the head-to-head tiebreakers. The Horned Frogs do have a win over the Mountaineers this season and will get another shot at them in Fort Worth on Sunday, Feb. 15. Given the current standings, TCU needs to sweep West Virginia to keep title hopes alive.

Oklahoma State would need a bit more help to crack the top two since it lost to TCU and Baylor. But if the Cowgirls can stay at three losses, they give themselves a chance amidst chaos at the top.

Don’t Count Out Yet: Colorado, Utah, Iowa State, ASU, BYU, KSU

After the top five teams, it’s hard to predict who else has a shot at moving into title contention until more games are played. A 6-4 Big 12 team, like Colorado, who TCU visits on Sunday, Feb. 8, could sneak into the top spot by beating the teams ahead of them and waiting for those teams to pick up more losses. Utah also sits at 6-4 with the single-game tiebreaker over TCU.

Iowa State (6-5 Big 12), Arizona State (5-5), BYU (5-5) and Kansas State (5-5) could sneak into the conference title race, but that might be a tougher sell. Of the teams in this grouping, TCU hosts Iowa State on Feb. 22. After starting conference play 2-5, the Cyclones have regained steam with a four-game winning streak.

Will Not Win The Conference

The remaining Big 12 teams - Cincinnati (3-7), Kansas (3-8), UCF (2-8), Arizona (1-9) and Houston (1-9) - might not be mathematically eliminated yet, but would need a miracle to win the conference.

TCU women's basketball is currently projected as a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament. | Brian McLean - On Assignment Photo/KillerFrogs.com for TCU On SI

March Madness: Bracketology

Selection Sunday is less than six weeks away. The question for TCU is not if it will reach the Big Dance, but if it will host first and second round NCAA Tournament games for the second consecutive season. Teams seeded 1 through 4 are host sites.

Based on the latest tournament projections from ESPN’s women’s college basketball bracketologist Charlie Creme, the Horned Frogs make the host cut off as a No. 3 seed. Projections are updated every Tuesday and Friday.

TCU is matched up against No. 14 McNeese State in the first round with No. 11 Rice and No. 6 NC State rounding out the subregion. If this scenario played out and TCU and NC State both won, it would be a rematch of a Nov. 16 game in Raleigh. The Horned Frogs beat the Wolfpack, 69-59.

The Big 12 currently has eight teams projected to make the tournament: Baylor (5 seed, Ole Miss host), Oklahoma State (8, South Carolina), Texas Tech (6, Iowa), Iowa State (9, UCLA), West Virginia (5, Tennessee), Utah (11, Michigan State) and BYU (12, Oklahoma). Arizona State and Colorado are in the First Four Out group.

The tournament’s No. 1 seeds are UConn, UCLA, South Carolina and Texas.

This year’s two regional sites, which host the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight, are Fort Worth and Sacramento. This means TCU could play the two games at Schollmaier Arena and then head down the street to Dickies Arena.

A lot can change with these projections over the final four weeks of conference play. Another loss or two could move the Horned Frogs out of a host seed spot. TCU needs a strong finish to the regular season to remain a host and gain a hometown advantage throughout the tournament.

NCAA Tournament Dates

Selection Sunday: March 15

First & Second Rounds: March 20-23 (Various Sites)

Sweet Sixteen & Elite Eight: March 27-30 (Fort Worth & Sacramento)

Final Four & Championship: April 3 & 5 (Phoenix)

Up Next

TCU will play Houston (7-14 overall, 1-9 Big 12) on Wednesday, Feb. 4 at Schollmaier Arena. Tip off is scheduled for 6:30 p.m.