Cotton Bowl: Tulane Vs. USC New Year's Six Preview, Prediction

The Tulane Green Wave (11-2) take on the USC Trojans (11-2) in the Cotton Bowl, a New Year's Six bowl game in Bowl Season. Kickoff comes from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, on Monday, Jan. 2, at 12:00 p.m. CT.

Can Tulane continue the recent trend of Group of Five upsets over Power Five powers in New Year's Six Bowls? Or does the Heisman Trophy winner have one more outing in him?

Sizing Up The Tulane Green Wave

Willie Fritz turned Tulane around from a two-win team in 2021 to an 11-win American Athletic Conference champion in one season. The coaching job he's done with the Green Wave in 2022 is nothing short of miraculous, only outdone by Sonny Dykes and TCU in the eyes of Coach of the Year voters.

The Tulane offense runs through running back Tyjae Spears, who has rushed for over 120 yards in each of his last seven games. On the season, he rushed for over 1,300 yards and 15 touchdowns– both top-15 marks nationally. Spears isn't just a threat on the ground, but also one in the receiving game, where he pulled in 21 passes and two more touchdowns.

Quarterback Michael Pratt began to make a name for himself even on the 2021 Tulane squad. This season, Pratt threw 25 touchdowns and just five interceptions while completing nearly 65% of his passes.

However, this team made their money on defense. A stout defensive secondary held high-flying passing attacks to peanuts in conference play. The defense also led the way in a shocking Week 3 upset over Kansas State.

Linebacker Dorian Williams is truly the do-it-all leader of Tulane's defense. On top of his team-leading 115 tackles (top-20 nationally), 8.5 tackles for loss, and five sacks; Williams had seven pass breakups– also a team-high mark.

Sizing Up The USC Trojans

USC may have been in the spotlight more than any other team after they hired away Lincoln Riley from Oklahoma in a shocking move last offseason. Along with Riley came several high-profile players and it was clear from the start that USC paved a new way for success in college football.

The biggest in-season story quickly became Caleb Williams, this year's Heisman Trophy winner. Williams showed flashes of brilliance at Oklahoma in limited reserve play, but burst onto the scene with 47 combined touchdowns and just four interceptions.

Williams had the benefit of throwing to 2021 Biletnikoff Award winner Jordan Addison and Oklahoma transfer Mario Williams all season long.

The weakness for USC was a porous defense that ranks bottom-10 nationally in most categories. However, that didn't mean the unit wasn't disruptive. USC recovered a lucrative 74% of fumbles (first nationally and a number that the laws of chance say should be near 50%) and posted a +21 turnover margin.

USC was primed for a spot in the College Football Playoff until they were soundly beaten by Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

Notable Injuries, Opt Outs

USC: QB Caleb Williams (Probable), WR Jordan Addison (OUT), OL Andrew Vorhees (OUT), C Brett Neilsen (OUT), LB Ralen Goforth (transfer)

Tulane: None

Why Tulane Can Win

Defense and grit goes a long way in bowl games. Tulane has the added advantage of no major injuries or opt outs, contrary to USC's who's who list of injuries.

Williams was seriously banged up in the Pac-12 Championship Game with a hamstring injury that left him nearly unable to move. While he appears ready to play, it's unclear how hindered by that injury the Heisman winner will be.

Tulane also has the secondary to limit damage through the air. Despite a cast of four- and five-star receivers, Tulane's cornerbacks are well-equipped to defend them. There's almost no world that exists in which Tulane completely shuts down USC's passing offense or keeps them from scoring, but the defensive secondary won't be a liability.

Offensively, Tulane should have no problem moving the ball. Spears is primed for a terrific game against USC's defense that's 99th in yards per carry allowed.

All Tulane has to do is hang around for three quarters and get a stop or two late. We've seen the blueprint for the Group of Five rep to win their New Year's Six game.

Why USC Can Win

There is absolutely no debate– USC is the more talented team by far. Despite their opt outs, this roster ranks 11th in 247Sports' talent metric (Tulane 77th) and they field the Heisman Trophy winner.

USC proved they can out-score just about anyone and pass their way past their problems. 40+ points is not only not out the realm of possibility in any given game for the Trojans, but it's likely.

Riley is an experienced coach in big time bowl games. While his record suffers from having faced the likes of Georgia and LSU in the CFP, Riley puts on a good show. USC's path to winning means outscoring Tulane and– given the embarrassment of riches at skill positions– they absolutely can do so.

However, they'll have to mask deficiencies on the offensive line and game plan for their offense to need to keep up with scoring.

Tulane Vs. USC Prediction

There's no world in which we don't see Tulane's A+ effort in this game. On the other hand, the costly loss to Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game could be the rain on USC's parade that costs them a New Year's Six bowl win, too.

One team's playing for the opportunity of a lifetime while the other is coming in shorthanded to a consolation prize after missing out on the Playoff.

That combination is dangerous.

USC's defense stinks– plain and simple. Tulane is going to score and with Caleb Williams possibly not being at 100%, this has all the makings of an upset.

The pick: Tulane 41-31

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