Midnite Madness Player Opt-Outs Devalue TCU-USC Alamo Bowl

The 2025 Alamo Bowl, scheduled for 8 pm (Central) on Tuesday, December 30, in San Antonio, Texas, features TCU and No. 16 USC. However, in reality, the teams might not be recognizable except for the colors of their uniforms.

By Kick-off, Neither Team Will Resemble Its Regular-Season Version

Neither the Horned Frogs of the Big 12 Conference nor the Trojans of the Big 10 Conference is the same team they were on November 29 when they each won their last regular-season game. And that’s a poke in the eye for the Alamo Bowl committee, and particularly the fans who have spent hundreds, and even thousands, of dollars to attend the game and its associated activities.

The price of bowl game tickets purchased through TCU range from $80 to nearly $200.

Bowl Packages Still Cost Premium Dollars Despite Roster Turnover

The TCU Alumni Association is marketing bowl game travel packages, with prices starting at $1,729 per person, not including a game ticket.

The Alumni Association and the Frog Club are hosting the official TCU Alamo Bowl Tailgate in San Antonio. The cost is $100 per adult, or $150 per adult if you desire to be a VIP attendee.

That’s a lot of cash, not including other associated expenses, to watch two watered-down college football teams play what amounts to a meaningless 13th game in their 2025 seasons.

The Trojans Are Shorthanded on Both Sides of the Ball

A dozen or so USC players reportedly are opting out of the Alamo Bowl game, including several starters, either because they have declared for the transfer portal or are more interested in preparing for a possible NFL career than they are in playing a meaningless bowl game against an unranked opponent from a perceived inferior Power 4 conference.

Notably, USC will be without star wide receivers Ja’Kobi Lane and Makai Lemon, both of whom have announced their decisions to enter the 2026 NFL Draft and not play in the bowl game.

During the regular season, Lane caught 49 passes for 745 yards and four touchdowns. Lemon had 79 receptions for 1,156 yards. He caught 11 touchdown passes.

USC’s offense also will be without its two top tight ends. Walker Lyons is declaring for the transfer portal and is opting out of the bowl game. Lake McRee has exhausted his eligibility and is set to enter the 2026 NFL Draft. McRee and Lyons saw nearly all of the action for USC at tight end this season. They made 50 of the 51 catches by Trojan tight ends this season.

TCU's Biggest Opt-Out Happens at the Most Important Position

TCU QB Josh Hoover — Brian McLean, On Assignment Photo/TCU Horned Frogs On SI

TCU doesn’t have as many players as USC who are opting out of the game, but the Horned Frogs will be missing the starting quarterback, who led them to an 8-4 overall record in 2025.

Josh Hoover will be entering the transfer portal and playing his last year of collegiate football somewhere other than Fort Worth, Texas, so he has opted out of the Almo Bowl.

Hoover, perhaps, is the most valuable player on either team who will not play in the bowl game. TCU backup redshirt freshman running back Nate Palmer will also enter the transfer portal and will not play in the bowl game. TCU junior starting wide receiver Jordan Dwyer will miss the game because of an injury. Dwyer is the Frogs’ second-leading wide receiver.

Hoover, a redshirt senior who graduated in May and has one year of eligibility remaining, started 31 games over his TCU career, including each game the past two seasons. With Hoover as their starting quarterback, the Frogs are 19-12, including 17-8 in the last two years.

Kenny Seals Gets His Chance After Waiting His Turn

TCU quarterback Ken Seals (9) will lead the Horned Frogs in the 2025 Alamo Bowl. | TCU Athletics

Senior quarterback Ken Seals is expected to start for the Frogs in the bowl game. Seals was a starter at Vanderbilt from 2020-23, but has played sparingly as a Frog over the past two seasons. He has only attempted six passes this season. He completed four of the passes for 24 yards. One of the passes was intercepted. He had a long completion of 11 yards.

Seals and TCU’s offense will be challenged by an USC defense that, in 2025, only has allowed:

22.42 points per game

348.8 total yards per game

203.3 passing yards per game

45.5 rushing yards per game

33 touchdowns: 21 through the air and 12 on the ground

The Trojans’ defense has recorded 15 sacks, forced 16 fumbles and recovered six of them, and intercepted 11 passes.

With TCU’s offense likely to be severely handicapped by the absence of Hoover and Seals’ lack of game experience over the past two years, the result of the game may well hinge on the ability of TCU’s defense to stop USC’s explosive offense.

TCU's Defense May Decide Whether This Game Is Watchable

TCU Defense Combined Tackle — The TCU defense swarms the Long Island ballcarrier late in the game. | TB@Killerfrogs.com

The Horned Frogs’ defense will be charged with trying to stop an USC offense that in 2025 is averaging:

36.5 points per game

471.6 total yards per game

297.3 passing yards per game

174.3 rushing yards per game

USC Offense Still Has Explosive Power

The Trojans have scored 28 rushing touchdowns and 25 touchdowns through the air. They have given up 28 sacks, thrown eight interceptions, and fumbled 12 times, losing six of them.

USC’s dynamic offense, which ranked second overall in the Big 10 Conference behind No. 1 Indiana is led by starting quarterback Jayden Maiava, a redshirt junior. For the regular season, he led the Big 10 in passing yards with 3,431. Maiava completed 247 of 373 passes. He threw 23 touchdown passes and eight interceptions. He ran 51 times, with six of the carries going for touchdowns.

USC redshirt freshman running back King Miller ran 131 times for 873 yards during the regular season. He averaged 6.7 yards per rush and 72.75 rushing yards per game. He had seven rushing touchdowns and a long run of 75 yards.

TCU’s defense ranks ninth in the Big 12 in total defense, 14th in passing defense, and fifth in rushing defense.

The offensive and defensive statistics clearly favor the Trojans, and they are favored over the Frogs by at least 6.5 points. According to ESPN Analytics, USC has nearly a 70 percent chance of beating TCU.

Sorry, TCU fans, your Alamo Bowl-associated purchases are non-refundable.