Football: UCF Has a Chance to Make Noise in Its First Season in the Big 12
Over the last several seasons, the media has struggled mightily with creating a Big 12 preseason poll that ends up being anywhere close to accurate.
In 2021, for example, pollers picked Oklahoma State to finish fourth in the conference and Baylor to finish eighth. Both teams found themselves in the Big 12 Conference Championship game, and the Bears, picked eighth out of 10 teams the previous July, won the game.
In 2022, Kansas State was projected to finish fifth, and TCU was picked to finish seventh. The Wildcats beat the Horned Frogs in the Big 12 Championship game, and TCU went on to play in the national championship against Georgia.
The question is: if this trend continues and we see another low-ranked team surprise the league, who would it be? My pick is conference newcomer UCF.
The Knights have been among the winningest programs in the country since their abysmal 0-12 season in 2015, thanks to an undefeated campaign in 2017 and a 12-win year in 2018. Former Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn took over the team in 2021 and has been preparing the program to enter the Power 5.
UCF won nine games in each of its first two seasons with Malzahn at the helm. This season, he has alongside him offensive coordinator Darin Hinshaw, a former UCF quarterback from the early 90s, who set the program's passing yards record with 9,000. He spent last season as the OC at UAB, where the Blazers set school records for both total yards and rushing yards.
Hinshaw will have one of the most exciting jobs in the country calling plays for QB John Rhys-Plumlee, who is lethal with his arm and with his legs.
Rhys-Plumlee began his career at Ole Miss, playing three seasons in Oxford before entering the portal and transferring to UCF. After starting his career as a quarterback, he transitioned to receiver for his junior season. He caught for over 200 yards but decided to look for new options that would allow him to play quarterback. He and Malzahn were familiar with each other due to Malzahn's previous recruitment of Rhys-Plumlee while coaching for Auburn. While recruiting him to Auburn, Malzahn told Rhys-Plumlee he wanted him to play slot receiver, and Rhys-Plumlee respectfully declined. Malzahn recruited him as a quarterback this time, and the two finally teamed up.
In the duo's first season together, UCF's offense was 16th in total yards per game (469.6) and 32nd in yards per play (6.17). The Knights also ranked ninth in rushing offense (228.4), 31st in scoring offense (32.9), and 16th in third down percentage (46.4%).
On the ground, UCF was lethal - one of the best groups in the country - but the air attack had room for improvement, and Malzahn's appointment of play-calling duties to Henshaw demonstrates an effort to make that improvement.
"I brought in Darin to really open up our offense and push the ball down the field," Malzahn said. "We were a top-20 offense overall in college football, but our yards per completion was 88th in the country or something like that."
Rhys-Plumlee had the best season of his career last year by far, but there is always room for improvement. So far, Henshaw has helped him make strides.
"With developing our quarterback, specifically John Rhys Plumlee, he has done an unbelievable job," Malzahn said. "John Rhys is like night and day to where he was this time last year."
"I'm fired up about Hinshaw," said Plumlee. "I've only been with him for a spring and a summer, and I've already developed a ton underneath him. His scheme is unbelievable, he coaches unbelievably well, and I've learned a ton from him already in the short period of time."
Quarterback means very little without an at least competent cabinet of skill players and offensive linemen, and luckily for Plumlee and the Knights, UCF has that. Running back RJ Harvey is coming off a breakout junior season, rushing for 796 yards and five touchdowns. Joining him in the backfield are senior Johnny Richardson and Demarkcus Bowman, a transfer from Clemson and Florida and a former five-star prospect.
At receiver, the Knights are bringing back two of the top three receivers from the 2022 season, Javon Baker and Kobe Hudson. Baker caught a career-high 56 passes for 796 yards and five touchdowns. Hudson caught for 641 yards and seven touchdowns, both of which were career-bests for the former Auburn Tiger.
"I mean Javon, Kobe, and all those guys... I think you can classify them in the freak category," Plumlee said. "Javon's catch radius is unbelievable. It makes you feel good as a quarterback, you know, Javon is down there somewhere, so I just gotta throw it up."
"[You can expect] big plays," Baker said. "The ball's gonna go down the field.
Lokahi Pauole improved the offensive line. The unit was strong last year but is losing talent at the center, tackle, and guard positions. Malzahn brought in a nice haul to fill the voids, headlined by Marcellus Marshall, a transfer from Kent State, and Amari Kight from Alabama.
"We got some studs at the O-line spot," Plumlee said. "I'm really excited about the year they're gonna have. We have depth in that position which is a weapon when you want to use pace and go fast. "We have the ability to pit-stop and get fresh guys in there, so I think it's definitely a weapon for us."
"We got depth," Pauole said. "Having 9-10 guys who can play is amazing. We have an 'in the building' competition, and we love to say we are the best position group on the team."
At this point, we're over 700 words in and haven't mentioned defense once. But that is not for a lack of talent and potential. The Knights ranked 46th in the country, giving up 23.46 points per game. Former secondary coach Addison Williams was promoted and is now the team's defensive coordinator. Williams inherits a loaded defensive line featuring Ricky Barber, Josh Celiscar, and Tre'Mon Morris-Brash.
Barber, 6-3, 295 pounds, started all 14 games last season at defensive tackle and recorded the most hurries on the team (12) and the second most tackles for loss (9). Celiscar and Morris-Brash, both defensive ends, combined for nine sacks last season. The back seven is not as strong as the defensive line, but linebacker Jason Johnson is a star and will hold down the back as well as he can.
"You can expect a defense that gets to the quarterback," Barber said. "We are a fast, physical defense that likes to play in the backfield a lot."
UCF is a well-coached team with plenty of experience and talent. The Knights are scheduled to play Oklahoma and Kansas State on the road, which will obviously be tough, but they host Oklahoma State and Baylor in the Bounce House in Orlando. For those unfamiliar with the Bounce House, get ready.
"Our fans are crazy," Barber said. "It's going to be a hostile environment."
If UCF can take advantage of a weak non-conference schedule and have momentum going into Big 12 play, the team could make some serious noise.
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