TCU Football Opponent Preview: Houston Cougars

Year 1 under Willie Fritz produced one of the starkest half-teams in college football the past decade, save for those Iowa teams under OC Brian Ferentz. The Houston Cougars couldn't score the ball, but the defense was elite, leading to a promising, but underwhelming, 4-8 finish. In Year 2, there are two new coordinators (for both better and worse), and Fritz looks to speed up this rebuild process.

Your TCU Horned Frogs look to avenge a shocking loss from last year in Week 13 as they visit Fritz and Houston. We'll tackle that game preview in November, but for now, let's size up Houston as a whole and lay out expectations for 2025.

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2025 Houston Football At A Glance

Name: Houston Cougars
Stadium: Space City Finacial Stadium, Houston, TX (capacity: 40,000)
Head coach: Willie Fritz (2nd season)
Offensive coordinator: Slade Nagle
Defensive coordinator: Austin Armstrong
2024 record: 4-8 (3-6 Big 12)

Houston Football In 2024: Correcting The Ship

Houston football preview — Nov 23, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Cougars quarterback Donovan Smith (1) and running back Re'Shaun Sanford II (26) warm up before the game against the Baylor Bears at TDECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Not all records are built the same. While Houston finished 4-8 in both 2023 and 2024, the story to get there was vastly different. In its first year with the Big 12, Houston didn't find excellence anywhere – when the offense scored enough points, the defense gave up too many (43-41 OT loss to Rice), and when the defense did its job, the offense failed to score (24-14 loss to Cincinnati). But in 2024, Willie Fritz's defense turned into a nationally elite unit.

QB Donovan Smith had...questionable...NFL hype going into the season (some folks were even leading a No. 1 NFL Draft choice charge), and he severely underwhelmed. Smith was benched for Zeon Chriss, who, while better, was still uninspiring. Houston couldn't run the ball, couldn't throw it either, and turned in one of the funniest offensive profiles I have ever seen (courtesy of Game on Paper):

Game on Paper

The Cougars held seven opponents to 20 or fewer points and had a stretch where they won three out of four games, including over 9-4 TCU and 9-4 Kansas State. But in its final three games, Houston's offense combined for 31 total points, and it went 0-3. The scoring unit was abysmal – only three teams finished worse in points per drive. And so Houston fell to 4-8 with a 3-6 conference record despite a top-40 defense.

Houston Cougars Offense Preview

Chriss returns at QB but Fritz brings in former Texas A&M QB Conner Weigman, likely as QB1. His stint in College Station was maligned by injuries and overall lukewarm results. New OC Slade Nagle, who worked alongside Fritz at Tulane, looks to both improve Weigman and this offense that almost couldn't have been worse a year ago. Chriss still remains an option, likely as a runner, in certain situations.

All four top rushers are back including RB Re'Shaun Sanford, who ran for 444 yards and a touchdown in a by-committee backfield last season. Sanford and Stacy Sneed (308 yards, 1 TD) were asked to catch passes out of the backfield last year. Rice transfer Dean Conners comes in as a true dual-threat back – he amassed over 1,100 scrimmage yards in each of the last two seasons including 105 receptions combined. Expect all three to see time on the field and to also add a receiving threat under Nagle.

Stephon Johnson returns as the leading receiver, but a lethargic passing attack held him to just 402 yards and two scores; even top option Joseph Manjack IV mustered 351 yards and three scores before bolting to TCU this offseason. Ball State TE Tanner Kozoil injects some size and production into the pass catching unit, standing 6-foot-7 and bringing with him nearly 900 receiving yards from a year ago.

Four FBS starters return to the offensive line and only two played for Houston last season. The turnover is a good thing, though, as this was among the worst offensive lines in the Big 12 and among Power Conference teams as a whole. Cal transfer Matthew Wykoff gives the room another experienced body, but I'm not convinced this unit gets up off the mat.

Houston Cougars Defense Preview

The biggest loss for Houston this offseason was defensive coordinator Shiel Wood, who left for conference rival Texas Tech this offseason. In comes Austin Armstrong, who couldn't quite get things going at Florida after being heralded as a young hotshot. The pressures at Houston are minute compared to those at Florida, so this move is likely good for the young coordinator.

Seven starters return from last year, but five of the top six tacklers need replacing. Perhaps the biggest loss was AJ Haulcy, an all-conference selection who logged 70 tackles and five interceptions. Louisiana Tech transfer Blake Thompson will look to make up some of that vacated production after logging 59 tackles and 3 PBUs in 10 starts. The defense's top corner, Jeremiah Wilson, is off to the NFL and is supplanted by Southern Miss transfer Will James (7 PBU).

More Group of Five school transfers make up some of the starters along the defensive front. Eddie Walls was a productive defensive end for FIU and projects to anchor one edge rusher spot in Armstrong's defense. Washington State transfer Khalil Laufau also projects to start after recording 16 tackles and four sacks in 2024.

There's no question that this defense takes a step back this season. Last year's combination of an elite scheme and playcaller, plus true shutdown and all-conference players in the secondary made up a nightmare matchup for many Big 12 teams. That just won't be the case this year even with moderate experience returning.

Best Case Scenario For Houston

Fritz is a program builder. He successfully turned Tulane around from a 2-10 program into Cotton Bowl champions given enough time and resources. He makes excellent coordinator hires and adds continuity to his staff with the addition of Nagle. While losing Wood is a big departure, Armstrong is a new reclamation project that could seriously thrive here.

Weigman is probably an upgrade at QB, definitely as a passer, and adding Kozoil shouldn't be overlooked. This is an offense that can't get worse and should be among the most improved units in the entire country, even if that means a moderate improvement into the top 100 nationally. Weigman has talent at receiver, though someone will need to step up as the alpha in that room. The running back room is underrated and flexible.

Houston avoids Kansas State and Iowa State, two of the conference favorites, and handles Baylor and Texas Tech at home. The Cougs catch West Virginia and UCF in rebuilds and Arizona and Oklahoma State off terrible years. A non-conference slate of rival Rice, Oregon State, and FCS Stephen F. Austin is manageable and the schedule certainly calls for improvement.

Fritz is likely in store for his first bowl season since joining Houston and there's at least seven winnable games on this schedule. There's a path to 8-4 if Houston beats teams it should and manages to swing home games like Colorado and Arizona in its favor.

Worst Case Scenario For Houston

A new coordinator and QB doesn't always mean your offense turns into a world-beater overnight. There's fun pieces, but when the running back room is the highlight in the receiving game, something's amiss. I'm not overly confident in Weigman as a player–he struggled to stay healthy at A&M and had some really dreadful games, plus plenty of accounts paint him as a subpar leader and learner of the game–and the receiving room is bad.

The biggest concern comes up front on offense as an opposing scout called this unit "not very tough" and I'm not sure an addition from Cal and replaced starter from Texas Tech turn it into a strong unit overnight. This still projects as one of the Big 12's worst.

There's a chance (and a good one, at that) that the defense regresses and the offense doesn't improve enough to offset that regression. Seven winnable games today could be four winnable ones by October. This isn't a Houston team that out-talents many opponents as of now.

But given that this offense was one of the worst in America a year ago and Fritz still managed four wins–including those upsets over TCU and Kansas State–is promising. Another 4-8 season can't be ruled out even if, again, Houston improves.

2025 Houston Cougars Schedule

Date	Opponent
Aug. 28 (THU)	Stephen F. Austin (FCS)
Sept. 6	at Rice
Sept. 12 (FRI)	Colorado
Sept. 20	BYE
Sept. 26 (FRI)	at Oregon State
Oct. 4	Texas Tech
Oct. 11	at Oklahoma State
Oct. 18	Arizona
Oct. 25	at Arizona State
Nov. 1	West Virginia
Nov. 7 (FRI)	at UCF
Nov. 15	BYE
Nov. 22	TCU
Nov. 29	at Baylor

TCU Opponent Previews

Week 1 - North Carolina
Week 4 - SMU
Week 5 - Arizona State
Week 6 - Colorado
Week 7 - Kansas State
Week 8 - Baylor
Week 9 - West Virginia
Week 11 - Iowa State
Week 12 - BYU

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