TCU Football Win Total 2023: Will Frogs Go Over Or Under Betting Odds?

This summer, sportsbooks released projected win totals for the TCU Horned Frogs for the upcoming 2023 college football season. Coming off a 13-2 campaign and a spot in the National Championship Game, excitement runs high in Fort Worth. However, a lot leaves the team in 2023. For their follow up campaign, sportsbooks line TCU for 7.5 wins.

But, what does that exactly mean? That oddsmakers foresee a 7-5 or 8-4 campaign for the Horned Frogs this coming season? Not exactly.

Let's dive into what the numbers mean and what we project for the coming season.

What Are Win Totals And How Do I Interpret Them?

Rather than a projection of wins and losses, a win total is a likely average outcome for the regular season. So, a 7.5 win total doesn't mean that TCU can't (or won't) win nine games this year. It's a probability.

Each side of the bet also comes with odds. In this case (odds taken from BetMGM Sportsbook as of June 26):

Over 7.5 wins (-140)
Under 7.5 wins (+115)

-140 implies a 58.3% probability that TCU goes over 7.5 wins while +115 implies a 46.5% probability that they go under.

These numbers are pulled from win probabilities for each of TCU's regular season games and 7.5 was the most frequent occurrence, according to BetMGM.

Will TCU Go Over Or Under Their Win Total?

This year, TCU plays the 30th-most difficult schedule in the country. It opens up as nearly a three-touchdown favorite over wildcard Colorado in Week 1 and faces neighbor rival SMU in Week 4. The Frogs draw both Texas and Oklahoma – who depart for the SEC after this year – as well as defending Big 12 champion Kansas State on the road.

Cut and dry: the Horned Frogs won't have an easy road this year.

Another factor working against TCU this coming season is that they went an astonishing 6-0 in one-score games and 9-0 in games within 10 points last year. One or two 50/50 bounces that land another way turns 6-0 into 4-2 or 3-3. It's called regressing to the mean and, mathematically, regression is due for TCU this year.

But, despite a true outlier of a season in almost every category, TCU is loaded with talent. Chandler Morris rises as the likely heir to the starting QB spot. He has a handful of starts under his belt and even beat out Max Duggan at the start 2022. Rising defensively are All America candidate Josh Newton and leading tackler Johnny Hodges.

The Frogs also brought in a glut of starters in the transfer portal, namely receiver JoJo Earle (Alabama), tackle Tommy Brockermeyer (Alabama), and corner Avery Helm (Florida). That inbound class ranks No. 2 in the Big 12 behind Oklahoma.

The talent and the confidence are there for Sonny Dykes & Co. Also inbound is Arkansas offensive coordinator Kendall Briles, who attempts to fill in for the departed Garrett Riley (Clemson). However, Briles will run Dykes' offense, even if he puts his own spin on it, a lot like Riley did last season. Don't expect much to change schematically on the offensive side of the ball.

All that to say: my preseason numbers project TCU for 8.5 wins in 2023. Their highest expected win rate against FBS teams comes Week 1 against Colorado (95%) while the lowest comes at home against Texas (35.8%).

(Reminder: 35.8% does not mean TCU cannot or will not win – probabilities are not binomial!)

Can TCU operate in the 5% like they did last season? Surely. Regardless, my preseason projections call for TCU to exceed their sportsbook win totals.

Join me this season as I dive into more sports betting odds for TCU and college football as a whole. For more of my work and track record, visit TheLines.com.

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