7 Weeks Until TCU Football Kickoff Where Do the Horned Frogs Rank in the Big 12?

With just seven weeks until the 2026 college football season begins, ESPN has released its latest Big 12 power rankings. Here's where TCU lands, why history says preseason rankings aren't everything, and what it means for Sonny Dykes' Horned Frogs.

TCU football lands at No. 6 in the Big 12 Preseason Power Rankings | TCU360/Nghia Tran

What History Says About TCU's Preseason Rankings

As the countdown reaches seven weeks until kick-off, it's worth looking back at how pre-season expectation have treated TCU in recent years. History suggests the Horned Frogs have often finished far from where they're projected, making this year's ranking just another preseason opinion rather than a prediction of how the season will end.

In 2024, according to CBS Sports’ Shehan Jeyarajah, the Frogs entered the season 10th in the Big 12 power rankings. Historical context shows that this is not a surprise placement for TCU, as they just ended the season 5-7, a disappointing follow-up to this national championship appearance. The quarterback room was shaky as Josh Hoover seemed to earn the job heading into the season. Nobody knew whether the 2022 season was a fluke, but the 10th-place finish in the preseason rankings proved to be a miscalculation. 

The TCU Horned Frogs ended the 2024 season in 5th place. An astounding five-spot jump for the Frogs wasn’t even the high jump in the conference. Colorado was ranked just behind TCU at No. 11, while retaining future Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter and quarterback Shedeur Sanders. The Buffalo finished in fourth place. The real surprise of the Big 12 was the Arizona State Sun Devils. According to Jeyarajah’s rankings, the Sun Devils were placed to finish last in the conference. They went on to win the Big 12 Championship and earned a berth in the College Football Playoff. 

In ESPN’s 2025 Big 12 Football Preview, the TCU Horned Frogs were predicted to finish fourth in the conference. After a bounce-back campaign in 2024, the Frogs were treated to a respectable jump in the preseason rankings. Other teams to get this treatment were Arizona State and Texas Tech. 

However, TCU failed to exceed expectations, finishing 7th in the conference. It was not one of the lowest drops in rankings, that belongs to Kansas State, which was predicted to finish in the top 3 and finished 10th. 

Where ESPN Has TCU Ranked in the Big 12

TCU Helmet on showcase at the 2026 Big 12 Media Days | Emma Swinney | KillerFrogs.com

Looking at ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s 2026 Big 12 college football preview, TCU is ranked 6th. Middle of the road is where analysts tend to find the Frogs in the current Big 12 landscape. At the top are Texas Tech, BYU, Utah, Kansas State, and Arizona. In past seasons, some of those teams inside the preseason power rankings will not finish the season inside the top five. Does that leave room for TCU to take the opportunity and make a run at the Big 12 championship game? 

Why Preseason Rankings Don't Always Matter

The Big 12 conference is unpredictable, one of its best features. The structure of the top 2 teams making the championship game creates an environment of parity and randomness to the season. In 2024, Arizona State's making and winning the Big 12 championship game was unprecedented. A team picked towards the bottom of the league makes the climb to the top to win the whole conference. 

Anomalies have happened and can happen. For TCU, preseason rankings have never been accurate. For the last four seasons, TCU’s preseason rankings have never made the standings in December. Sonny Dykes and the Frogs tend to play better with a chip on their shoulder and with something to prove people wrong rather than having to prove people right. 

Tons of new head coaches enter the Big 12 this season, and a bunch of surprises will follow, whether or not these teams show major success under the new regime. It can be a blessing or a curse for the Frogs entering 2026. 

Big 12 Media Days, Day 1 Coaches Round Table | Tony Beblowski | KillerFrogs.com

Can TCU Beat the Preseason Predictions?

Seven weeks remain until kickoff, and the Big 12 once again enters the season with more questions than answers. ESPN's rankings offer a snapshot of where the conference stands today, but history has shown they rarely predict where teams finish in December. For TCU, a sixth-place preseason ranking may be less of a ceiling than a starting point.

Sonny Dykes and the Horned Frogs have an opportunity to prove the projections wrong once again. If the past few seasons have taught Big 12 fans anything, it's to expect the unexpected. The countdown to kickoff has officially begun, and TCU's biggest statement will be made on the field, not in a July power ranking.

The Big 12 Race Is Wide Open in 2026 

Follow TCUonSI.com throughout our "7 Weeks Until Kickoff" countdown series for the latest TCU football news, analysis, predictions, and season previews. Join the discussion on KillerFrogs.com and let us know where you think the Horned Frogs will finish in the Big 12 this season.