8 Weeks Until Kickoff Why 2026 Could Finally Be TCU Football's Breakthrough Season

Last week, we looked at everything that could derail TCU's season. This week, it's the opposite. From a favorable schedule to breakout stars and championship opportunities, here's why the Horned Frogs could exceed expectations in 2026.

Jeremy Payne could become one of several breakout stars if TCU reaches its potential in 2026 | TCU360/Nghia Tran

Why TCU Can Become a Big 12 Contender

TCU continues to find itself in the middle of power rankings, projections, and an overall vibe check in the preseason. For what it feels like the last three seasons, TCU has entered the year with more questions than praise. This offseason, however, feels different. While TCU has failed to prove them wrong, this could be the year the Frogs do just that. 

Last week, we looked at what could go wrong for the Frogs; one scenario was that TCU could continue the trend of losing games as the favorite. However, this year the Frogs’ schedule is loaded with winnable games. If TCU wins its opener against North Carolina in Ireland, a 3-0 start becomes a very realistic possibility. Then, after two tough games, on the road against the UCF Knights, and then a game against BYU in Fort Worth. Afterward, the schedule lightens up until a road game against Arizona. 

The Frogs have a chance to be at the top of the Big 12 standings come the middle of October and then continue the momentum for the rest of the season. TCU can find themselves in the final weeks of the regular season having a real chance to control their odds of making the Big 12 Championship game. 

Jeremy Payne Could Become TCU's Next Breakout Star

Under Sonny Dykes, the Frogs have had breakout stars on offense, including Max Duggan, Eric MacCalister, and Savion Williams, to name a few. Who will be the guy this year? With new Offense Coordinator Gordon Sammis and Sonny Dykes in the lab this offseason, maybe it's Jeremy Payne's time to shine. 

Jeremy Payne scores the game-winning touchdown against USC in the 2025 Alamo Bowl | Toby Beblowski for KillerFrogs.com

Heading into last season, Payne was one of the premier players on the offense that was due to break out; however, that was not the case. Payne rushed for 623 yards on 110 carries, also tallying 207 receiving yards on 22 receptions. Payne's biggest play of the season was against the University of Southern California in the Alamo Bowl, scoring the game-winning touchdown on a 3rd-and-20.

Payne is a coach’s dream: as a runner or receiver, his speed can be deadly, and if the staff shifts to a more run-heavy scheme, then Payne will have numerous opportunities to torch the defense. 

If it's not Payne, maybe wide receivers Jordan Dwyer or Jeremy Scott make some noise for the Frogs. Dwyer is slated to be the WR1; he brings a veteran mindset, and if he and quarterback Jaden Craig can build a positive relationship, the offense will thrive seamlessly. In the best case, Scott, a transfer from South Alabama, breaks the offense wide open. He averaged over 17 yards per catch during his freshman year, and if he can bring that ability to stretch the field to Amon G. Carter Stadium, the Frogs' offense will be must-watch TV. 

The Defense Gives TCU a Reliable Foundation

If the offense lives up to the hype, the defense will only have to repeat its performance from last year. For that to happen, Safety Jamel Johnson will be among the best in the conference. Johnson has a chance to be one of the best in the program's history. Following his 96 tackles and 5 interceptions from last season, he could continue to make impactful plays. The secondary should be able to improve upon last season. Cornerbacks Kalen Carroll, Vernon Glover Jr., and transfer Jacob Fields will be a vocal point for Defensive Coordinator Andy Avalos’s squad. 

TCU safety Jamel Johnson (2) celebrates with the Iron Skillet following a 35-24 win over SMU. Johnson came up with two interceptions, both in the final five minutes of the game, to seal the win for the Frogs. | Tony Beblowski - KillerFrogs.com for TCU On SI

If the front can generate more consistent pressure without relying heavily on blitzes, the secondary should have even more opportunities to create turnovers.

Two key elements for the defense's success in 2026 will be the pass rush win rate and limiting the explosive plays. If the pass rush doesn’t have a key player, the whole unit will have to play off each other for the success of the front four, which in turn helps relieve pressure off the back seven and limit big plays. 

Signature Wins Could Change the National Narrative

The Big 12 enters 2026 with at least five legitimate conference title contenders. TCU believes it belongs in that group. TCU has the chance to find itself in that mix as a contender. Their matchup against BYU will give the Frogs a chance to change the narrative of the season early, from fringe contender to top 25. If things go according to plan, the Thanksgiving match-up against Texas Tech will be the biggest regular-season game TCU has planned in years. Big-time wins last forever. TCU versus Oklahoma in 2014, TCU at Texas Tech in 2015, and TCU at Texas in 2022 are just a few examples of historic victories for the TCU Horned Frogs, and this season may just add another one to the collection. 

No one is handling TCU anything in 2027, but the pieces are in place for the Horned Frogs to take a significant step forward. If the returning talent develops as expected and the schedule breaks in TCU's favor, this season could become Sonny Dykes' best opportunity since the 2022 College Football Playoff run.

What do you think will go right for TCU this season? 

Follow TCUonSI.com for the rest of the offseason as kickoff gets closer and closer. This is a place for all the projections, predictions, and informative articles that turn fans into experts. Let us know your thoughts on the forum at KillerFrogs.com