It's Not Looking Good for the Texas Longhorns in the Latest Bracketology Projections

Texas remains within striking distance of an NCAA Tournament appearance.

Jan 24, 2026; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns guard Jordan Pope (0) looks to pass against Georgia Bulldogs guard Marcus Millender (4) during the second half at Moody Center. Mandatory Credit: Dustin Safranek-Imagn Images | Dustin Safranek-Imagn Images

The best way to describe the Texas Longhorns this season would be that they are teetering on the edge of being a tournament team, close enough to matter, but inconsistent enough to stay within the bubble.

Though head coach Sean Miller and the Longhorns have been finding their rhythm more consistently in recent weeks, the program remains on the outside looking in when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. In Joe Lunardi's recent Bracketology, Texas is currently listed as one of the first four teams left out of March Madness.

All things considered, the Longhorns are in a better spot than they were only a month ago. In the program's last five contests, Texas has picked up ranked wins over No. 15 Vanderbilt, No. 17 Alabama, and No. 21 Georgia. While things seem to be looking up, it doesn't mean that Texas can get comfortable during SEC conference play.

A Window to Make a Move for Texas

Jan 14, 2026; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns guard Dailyn Swain (3) celebrates a basket against the Vanderbilt Commodores during the second half at Moody Center. Mandatory Credit: Dustin Safranek-Imagn Images | Dustin Safranek-Imagn Images

It's safe to say that Texas will consistently be making its case for the NCAA Tournament from here on out. Up to this point, the Longhorns have been just an average team in the SEC with an overall record of 12-8 and a 3-4 conference record. They've been one of the more interesting teams during league play, with all of their wins coming against ranked opponents.

That kind of ability to perform against some of the better competition in the sport is exactly why Texas could be poised for a late-season surge in its next few contests. Not only has junior guard Dailyn Swain, the Longhorns' leading scorer, taken his game to new heights, but the program had a relatively favorable schedule coming up.

Starting on Wednesday, Texas will face six straight unranked opponents, with its toughest game coming against the Auburn Tigers. During that span, the Longhorns will also face Oklahoma, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Missouri, and LSU before matching up against ranked competition once again.

While winning the majority of those games, preferably four or all five of them, won't guarantee them an NCAA Tournament berth, it would certainly help Texas' resume heading into the final few games of the season.

Hovering Around the Cut Line

Jan 21, 2026; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Texas Longhorns head coach Sean Miller reacts to the action during the second half against the Kentucky Wildcats at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

Through 20 games this season, the Longhorns have shown flashes of being an elite team, but have hit rough patches right when things were clicking. While Texas has been perfect against Quad-4 competition this season (7-0), it's against more difficult competition that the program has fallen short.

The loss to Mississippi State to open league play remains one of the more notable losses that the Longhorns have suffered this season, since it's their only matchup against Quad-3 competition. Texas has also struggled to pick up wins over some of the premier competition in the sport. Against Quad-2 and Quad-1 opponents, the Longhorns currently hold a record of 4-7.

While taking advantage of a favorable upcoming schedule is important, it's likely that Miller and the Longhorns will need to pull off an upset or two to feel good about their odds on Selection Sunday.