Jay Bilas Predicts Unexpected March Madness Run for Texas Longhorns

The Texas Longhorns have experienced some ups and downs in the first season under head coach Sean Miller.

But despite all of that, the Longhorns still managed to barely sneak into the NCAA Tournament by being placed into the First Four for the second year in a row. Texas will play NC State in Dayton on Tuesday for the right to become the No. 11 seed against No. 6 BYU.

Not many college basketball fans expect much from Texas in March Madness, but ESPN analyst and former Duke star Jay Bilas is making a bold prediction about the Longhorns' chances for a deep tournament run.

Jay Bilas Has Texas Advancing to Sweet 16

Texas Longhorns head coach Sean Miller speaks with the media during a practice session ahead of the first four of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at University of Dayton Arena. | Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

In a piece for ESPN, Bilas revealed that he has Texas beating NC State in the First Four before pulling off an upset over No. 6 BYU.

"BYU isn't the same team it was earlier in the year, and I think its seed reflects what it was earlier in the year rather than late. I'm taking a flier on Texas here," Bilas wrote.

After that, he has No. 11 Texas beating No. 3 Gonzaga to advance to the Sweet 16 in San Jose, CA. He points to the absence of Gonzaga big man Braden Huff as a reason that the Longhorns could be in position for a win.

"The Zags are playing without Braden Huff -- and his 17.8 points and 5.6 rebounds per game -- which limits their offense and defense," Bilas wrote. "Gonzaga is the better team, but consider taking a flier here. Texas is a sneaky 11-seed because of its size, Dailyn Swain's ability to score and Sean Miller's coaching chops."

ESPN’s Jay Bilas has Texas winning the First Four, beating No. 6 BYU and then upsetting No. 3 seed Gonzaga to advance to the Sweet 16.

Predicts Longhorns will then lose to No. 2 Purdue. pic.twitter.com/EfSuTCbLJh
— Zach Dimmitt (@ZachDimmitt7) March 17, 2026

Bilas then has Texas losing to No. 2 seed Purdue, but getting that deep into the bracket would no doubt be a major success for the Longhorns in Miller's first year at the helm.

If Texas were to make it to the Sweet 16 against Purdue, the Longhorns would be playing against multiple teams that they have matched up with in recent season.

In six combined matchups against Purdue, BYU, Gonzaga and NC State since the 2021-22 season, Texas is 3-3. The Longhorns have beaten NC State (twice) and Gonzaga in the regular season in that span while losing to the Bulldogs, BYU and Purdue, with the latter defeat coming in the Round of 32 in Chris Beard's first season at Texas.

While the NCAA Tournament usually provides head-to-head matchups that are rare, this potential path for Texas would provide opponents that Longhorn fans have already seen in the past few years