ESPN No Longer Believes in Texas' College Football Playoff Chances

The Texas Longhorns’ chances at the College Football Playoffs appear to be sliding hard following their performance in week 3, according to these ESPN analysts.

Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian after his team's loss to Ohio State Buckeyes at the 2025 Cotton Bowl, Jan. 10, 2025 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. | Sara Diggins / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Following week 3 of college football, ESPN analysts Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach released an article predicting every postseason matchup.

While the Texas Longhorns dominated in the preseason rankings, in which the Longhorns were favored to be the college football national champions. However, their regular-season performance so far has made those chances seem impossible.

Their season opened with a loss against Ohio State, but they have since followed up with two wins against San Jose State and UTEP. In these matchups, the Longhorns prove to possess an excellent, top-notch defense, but have showcased a struggling offense.

Both Bonagura and Schlabach initially ranked Texas at No. 1, but now, in an updated predictions list, their odds have dropped significantly.

Texas Longhorns will be lucky if they make it to the playoffs

Texas Longhorns kick returner Ryan Niblett (21) tackled by San Jose Spartans linebacker Ethan Powell (26), Sept. 6, 2025, at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas. | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

“Texas still might be one of the best teams by season's end,” Schlabach said. “But something seems off with the Longhorns' offense at this point.”

Following another underwhelming offensive performance, Schlabach added that Texas fell out of his 12-team College Football Playoffs bracket. 

“Quarterback Arch Manning struggled throwing the ball again; at one point in Saturday's 27-10 victory against UTEP, he was booed by the home crowd for misfiring on 10 straight incompletions. Not good,” Schlabach said.

As of right now, Schlabach predicts the Longhorns won’t be making a playoff appearance but will instead face the Clemson Tigers at a non-playoff bowl game, the Gator Bowl in Jacksonville, Florida.

Regarding Bonagura’s College Football Playoffs prediction, he appears to give the Longhorns more credit, but not by much. 

He has Texas projected to end up ranked at No. 9 and facing the Illinois Fighting Illini in the first round of the playoffs. However, they will not be moving on as he predicts they will fall short against the Fighting Illini.

While these predictions are merely circumstantial, they will be updated weekly as college football persists and until the actual bowl matchups occur.

“The SEC looks as deep and strong as ever based on its nonconference record, meaning most of the in-league matchups will be up for grabs and have significant ramifications,” Bonagura and Schlach said.

While Texas’s offense still needs quite a bit of tinkering if it wants to be considered a true playoff contender, there is still ample time for the Longhorns. 

If they are able to pull it together and perform well, before their eight consecutive SEC games, which begins Oct. 4 against Florida — the Longhorns' odds at the College Football Playoffs might just turn around.

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