Texas Longhorns Have Shocking Projected Win Total For 2026

The Texas Longhorns found themselves on the outside looking in for the College Football Playoff last season, despite entering the year with sky-high expectations with first-year starting quarterback Arch Manning.

Now, after revamping both sides of the ball and attacking the transfer portal to load up talent, expectations are going nowhere for Steve Sarkisian and the Longhorns. With the first round of projections for the season released from FanDuel, they find themselves tied for the highest win total in the conference at 9.5.

Will the Longhorns finally meet the expectations set upon them, or will the tougher schedule pose problems?

Another Year of High Expectations

Despite what many people said about the prior season and the year Manning had under center, the Longhorns found their groove in the latter half of the year. They finished the year 10-3 and were 9-3 in the regular season, including a statement comeback win over their rivals, the Texas A&M Aggies.

Two of those losses came in conference play, including the confusing loss to the Florida Gators, who would later fire their coach. After losing their first SEC game of the year, though, they would rip off four straight, including two top-10 wins over the Oklahoma Sooners and the Vanderbilt Commodores.

After showing signs of life, and just how great Manning can be with experience, the Longhorns look primed to once again be one of the favorites to land in the College Football Playoff, and potentially find themselves bringing a national championship back to the Forty Acres for the first time in over 20 years.

Reloaded with talent, including the number one transfer receiver and linebacker in Cam Coleman and Rasheem Biles, and a two-headed monster in the backfield with Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers, Sarkisian's offense should take a big step forward in 2026.

2026 SEC Over/Under Win Totals from @FanDuel pic.twitter.com/KjtmmP0lPR
— SEC Mike (@MichaelWBratton) March 13, 2026

Bringing back star-talent along the defensive front, and loading up their secondary with a mixture of high school talent and experienced veterans from the transfer portal, they should hover around the same place they did last season, allowing 20.3 points per game to their opponents.

The main change for the Longhorns will be their schedule, which will be tougher than their first two seasons in the SEC. They will host the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Ole Miss Rebels, but will face a gauntlet on the road. Having to travel to take on Tennessee, Missouri, LSU, and the Aggies, the Longhorns will need to be at their best each week.

Should the Longhorns live up to their expectations, primarily with the talent on the roster, the win total projects the Longhorns to find themselves in the College Football Playoff, which would be the goal for the 2026 season.