Five Things That Will Decide Texas vs. Oklahoma

Texas heads into the Red River Rivalry unbeaten and ranked No. 1, but Oklahoma's defensive talent and the unpredictable nature of this matchup leave plenty of questions for the Longhorns to answer at the Cotton Bowl.

Oklahoma Sooners head coach Brent Venables (left) greets Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian before the game at the Cotton Bowl | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

The Longhorns are 4-0 and have already navigated difficult tests against Ohio State and Tennessee. Still, their offense has not consistently matched the standard set by a defense that delivered a dominant, 10-sack performance against the Volunteers.

Oklahoma enters at 2-2, unranked after losses to Michigan and Georgia, but the Sooners have the defensive ability to make Texas work for every possession. For Steve Sarkisian's team, the challenge is turning its talent advantage into a complete performance in one of college football's most emotionally charged games.

Five key areas could determine whether Texas keeps its perfect record intact.

1. Arch Manning's Ability to Handle Oklahoma's Defense

Oct 11, 2025; Dallas, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) looks to throw the ball during the game between the Texas Longhorns and the Oklahoma Sooners at the Cotton Bowl. | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Oklahoma's defense has been the team's biggest strength, allowing just 238 yards per game through its first four contests. The Sooners rank fourth nationally in passing defense and have allowed only one passing touchdown, making this a significant test for Manning.

Manning does not need to force big plays to prove himself. Texas needs him to make smart decisions, take the underneath completions and avoid turnovers that could give Oklahoma's defense an opportunity to change the game. If he stays patient against the Sooners' coverage, the Longhorns can gradually create opportunities downfield.

2. Colin Simmons Against Oklahoma's Offensive Line

Texas Longhorns defensive end Colin Simmons celebrates with the golden hat following the Red River Rivalry. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

This is one of the clearest opportunities for Texas to control the game. Oklahoma has dealt with inconsistency along its offensive line, and quarterback John Mateer has struggled with ball security. He committed four turnovers in the Sooners' 41-13 loss to Georgia, including a fumble returned for a touchdown.

Simmons gives Texas a game-changing pass rusher capable of exploiting protection breakdowns. After his record-tying performance against Tennessee, the Longhorns have reason to believe their defensive front can create another difficult afternoon for an opposing quarterback. If Simmons can generate pressure without Texas constantly blitzing, the secondary can focus on limiting Oklahoma's receivers.

3. Winning the Battle on the Ground

Sep 26, 2026; Knoxville, Tennessee, USA; Texas Longhorns running back Raleek Brown runs against Tennessee Volunteers linebacker Amare Campbell during the second half at Neyland Stadium. | Randy Sartin-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The rushing matchup could be decisive. Texas is averaging 147.3 rushing yards per game, compared with just 99 for Oklahoma. Neither team has been dominant on the ground, but the Longhorns have been more productive.

That difference matters because a successful running game helps Texas control possession, keep its defense fresh and prevent Oklahoma from dictating the pace. The Longhorns also need to avoid becoming predictable on early downs. Establishing the run would give Steve Sarkisian more options on play-action and keep Manning out of obvious passing situations.

4. Turnovers and Red-Zone Execution

Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer (10) rushes as Texas Longhorns defensive back Jaylon Guilbeau (3) and Texas Longhorns defensive back Michael Taaffe (16) defend in the first half of the Red River Rivalry college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners and the Texas Longhorn at the Cotton Bowl Stadium in Dallas, Texas, Saturday, Oct. 11, 2025. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

In a rivalry game between two defenses capable of making life difficult, giveaways can quickly become the difference. Oklahoma's loss to Georgia showed how costly mistakes can be, while Texas cannot afford to give the Sooners extra possessions or short fields.

The Longhorns must also finish drives. Moving the ball between the 20-yard lines means little if Texas settles for field goals or comes away empty-handed. Against a defense allowing few touchdowns through the air, converting red-zone chances into seven points will be especially important.

5. Steve Sarkisian's Patience With the Game Plan

Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian looks on before the game against the Tennessee Volunteers at Neyland Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The final factor is how Sarkisian responds when Oklahoma inevitably makes things difficult. Texas has enough talent at quarterback, receiver and running back to attack in different ways, but that versatility only matters if the coaching staff stays committed to the right approach.

Sarkisian cannot let a few stalled drives push him into abandoning the run or forcing deep throws into tight coverage. He needs to keep the offense balanced, make adjustments without overreacting and trust that consistent execution will create opportunities.

Texas enters the Cotton Bowl with an unbeaten record and the No. 1 ranking, but neither guarantees anything in Red River. If the Longhorns protect the football, win up front and stay disciplined offensively, they will give themselves a strong chance to leave Dallas with their perfect season intact.

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