Here's The Texas Longhorns' Slim Path to the College Football Playoff

With three losses on the season, what is the Texas Longhorns' path to the College Football Playoff?

Nov 15, 2025; Athens, Georgia, USA; Texas Longhorns mascot Bevo gestures after the game against the Georgia Bulldogs at Sanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The Texas Longhorns' season hasn't gone the way anyone on the team, or even the fans, expected it to go. Entering the season as the number one team in the country, expectations were sky high on what they could achieve.

Now, with three losses on the season and having been eliminated from playing in the SEC Championship, the Longhorns' path to the College Football Playoff has slimmed down. Still, they haven't been eliminated yet either.

So what is the path to the playoff for the Longhorns, and what will it take for them to find themselves as the first three-loss team let in?

Win and Hope

Nov 15, 2025; Athens, Georgia, USA; Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) looks on after a game against the Georgia Bulldogs at Sanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Obviously, for the Longhorns, the first step to being considered for an at-large bid by the committee includes them winning out. Dropping to four losses would eliminate them from contention. The first step is beating the Arkansas Razorbacks this weekend, before hosting their rivals, and the number three ranked team in the country, the Texas A&M Aggies.

Finishing at 9-3, with a win over the No. 3-ranked team in the country, and losses to two of the top five-ranked teams, would certainly make a case for an argument, but it wouldn't be enough. The Longhorns would need to be a beneficiary of chaos, especially around the teams ranked in the spots eight and lower.

The definite help pieces for the Longhorns start with the pieces in front of them. Georgia Tech and Miami will most likely meet in the ACC championship, with one of them likely to suffer their third loss, the same number the Longhorns could finish with. That moves the Longhorns up to number 16 in the rankings, and with a potential USC loss to Oregon, that would push them one spot higher to number 15.

That would leave Vanderbilt, Utah, and BYU in front of the number 12 spot. The Longhorns have one more loss than the Commodores, but they also have the head-to-head win that the committee values. The Utes already have two losses and could miss the Big 12 championship, while the Cougars could suffer their second loss of the season against the Red Raiders. If the score is anything like the first meeting, it could be enough to drop them below the Longhorns.

That would leave Alabama and Oklahoma in front of the Longhorns for potentially the last at-large spot in the Playoff. With Missouri and the Tigers still on the schedule for the Sooners, a loss could occur, and with a head-to-head win for the Longhorns, the spot could be theirs.

For the Crimson Tide, it gets a little trickier. They beat the Bulldogs, whom the Longhorns had lost to, but they also lost to the Sooners at home, whom the Longhorns had dominated on a neutral field.

Finding a way into the College Football Playoff will be tricky, but the Longhorns have a resume that stacks up with even two-loss teams in the country, and if Ohio State can win the Big Ten, it will only help them out more. Winning out, chaos, and patience could be enough for a path for the Longhorns, but the odds aren't too great in their favor.

The Longhorns will host the Razorbacks on Nov. 22 at 2:30 p.m. CT.