NFL Draft Analyst Gives His Thoughts On Arch Manning's Early Struggles

Despite the Texas Longhorns entering Week 4 with a 2-1 record, quarterback Arch Manning is still struggling to find a true offensive rhythm.

Currently posting a completion percentage of 55.3, Manning has tallied up 579 yards, six touchdowns as well as three interceptions across three non-conference games. While he has shown improvement in each game, many are beginning to doubt his potential.

On Wednesday’s episode of The Triple Option podcast, NFL Draft analyst Todd McShay makes a firm statement on the football legacy’s potential in the 2026 draft.

Todd McShay switches up his positon on Arch Manning

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) scoring a touchdown at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas. — Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) scoring a touchdown against UTEP Miners, Sept. 13, 2025, at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas. | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

Initially, McShay appeared to be all aboard the “Arch Madness” train — having written about his talents and potential based on game tape in May.

“I wouldn’t hesitate to make him my early No. 1 prospect in the 2026 draft class,” McShay wrote on his website, “He is that gifted and has shown immense potential in the limited playing time he’s had through his first two seasons at Texas.”

However, since then, McShay proves to have a drastic change of heart, and wants off.

“This year, talking to scouts around the league and putting together the preseason list and watching tape, I was like, ‘Oh, we got a chance to have a special group, right,’” McShay said.

Adding that, quarterbacks Carson Beck (Miami) and Sawyer Robertson (Baylor) have shown a lot of fire in their performance, as well as some under-the-radar quarterbacks, such as Fernando Mendozza (Indiana), Aidan Chiles (Michigan State) and John Mateer (Oklahoma).

“But, Arch hasn’t played well,” McShay added. “I think we all now, after three weeks, can kind of move on from that discussion, and hopefully he can turn things around and he’ll be in contention to be the number one pick in 2027.”

Continuing, McShay added that Manning has gotten too used to where his body lands at the line of scrimmage — maintaining a stance too parallel that he ends up either flicking the ball or running.

“When he actually gets his feet set and throws the ball and delivers, he’s been really good. But, that’s like one out of every three or four attempts that he’s doing that,” McShay added.

As Manning has proven to struggle throughout the 2025 season, it appears McShay has lost faith in his possible 2026 draft pursuits. While things remain uncertain — such as his drafting odds or how this season will pan out — it’s all up to Manning to show up and show out for the Longhorns.