Michigan vs. Texas Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for Cheez-It Citrus Bowl

Texas has momentum on its side ahead of this matchup.

Arch Manning and Texas are favored against Michigan on Wednesday. / Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

Two teams with strong odds to make the College Football Playoffs ahead of the 2025 season will find themselves on the outside looking in in this year’s Citrus Bowl. No. 13 Texas will face No. 18 Michigan on Wednesday as a 7.5-point favorite. The Longhorns’ outlook is strong following their win against No. 7 Texas A&M to end the regular season.

Texas won four of its final five regular-season games, but that wasn’t enough to keep its title hopes alive. Even with two wins against top-15 teams. Arch Manning has thrown for more than 300 yards with at least three touchdown passes in three times since the back half of October. He’ll likely have to keep that up to topple the Wolverines, as they’ve excelled at stopping the run this year. Michigan will have to navigate unexpectedly losing its coach, though.

Here’s our full betting breakdown ahead of kickoff.

Michigan vs. Texas Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Michigan: +7.5 (-110)
• Texas: -7.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Michigan: +245
• Texas: -300

Total: 48.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Michigan vs. Texas How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, December 31
• Game Time: 3:00 PM EST
• Venue: Camping World Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Michigan: 9-3
• Texas: 9-3

Michigan vs. Texas Key Players to Watch

Michigan

Jordan Marshall: Michigan’s leading rusher had a tough time against No. 1 Ohio State in his last game, but eclipsed 100 yards in four straight outings with seven rushing touchdowns before that matchup. The Wolverines running back has only totaled 932 yards, but is averaging 6.2 yards per carry. Texas does have a top-10 run defense that’s stifled most backs, so Marshall is in for a test.

Texas

Arch Manning: Manning has thrown five touchdowns passes and run for two scores with no picks during the Longhorns’ current two-game winning streak. The junior quarterback has found his rhythm and can put together another massive stat line against the Wolverines’ middling Big Ten pass defense. He’s attempted 34.5 passes per contest over his previous five games.

Michigan vs. Texas Prediction and Pick

Both these teams are 9-3 straight up, but have covered the spread just four times this season. The Longhorns are 4-7-1 against the spread, while the Wolverines are 4-8.

Texas hasn’t been dominant against the spread lately, but has won six of its previous seven games. It covered the spread in three of those games with one push. Michigan has gone 5-2 straight up over the same stretch with an uninspiring 2-5 record against the spread.

Moore was a key decision maker for Michigan’s offense and it’s not clear how the Wolverines will adjust without him. The underdogs are leaving too much up to chance with a new face calling the shots. The favorites can count on coaching reliability and better recent form to cover.

PICK: Texas -7.5 (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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