Texas Longhorns National Championship Stock Being Sold by One Expert

Despite being considered the favorite to win the national championship in 2025, there is one expert who says to sell stock in the Texas Longhorns.

Texas Longhorns Head Coach Steve Sarkisian speaks during the Coaches' Press Conference at AT&T Stadium, Jan. 9, 2024. Both coaches answered questions from the media during the conference, and will face each other in the Cotton Bowl College Football Playoff semi-final game on Friday. / Sara Diggins/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

As the only team in college football to make the College Football Playoff in each of the last two years, there are expectations that the Texas Longhorns are a team on the brink of capturing a national championship. After all, in each of their College Football Playoff semifinal appearances, they fell just a few plays short of making it to the national title game.

That fact, combined with the Longhorns' impending start to the Arch Manning era in 2025, as he ascends to the full-time starting quarterback role, creates immense hype that the now two-decade-long championship drought could be ending soon.

Yet, even with Texas being viewed as the favorite to win the national championship this coming season, not everyone is fully on board with that narrative. CBS Sports' Shehan Jeyarajah is one of those analysts who is not quite ready to fully buy into the Longhorns as national title favorites.

Jan 10, 2025; Arlington, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) runs against Ohio State Buckeyes cornerback Jordan Hancock (7) and safety Caleb Downs (2) during the second quarter of the College Football Playoff semifinal in the Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-Imagn Images / Tim Heitman-Imagn Images

"They're going to be back in the College Football Playoff and likely the SEC title game with their schedule. They're also in serious contention to be the preseason No. 1 team in the country, which feels a little generous with losses at receiver and both trenches," Jeyarajah writes. "Arch Manning will be incredible, but there will be young QB miscues. I expect Texas to finish as a top-five team, but maybe half a step behind being a true national championship contender.

Jeyarajah is right to have some concerns about the Longhorns, and specifically, all that they lost from a season ago. While the Texas defense does return a lot of its key contributors like Anthony Hill, Colin Simmons, and Trey Moore, among others, the Longhorns offense will have more new faces.

According to ESPN's Bill Connelly's returning production statistic, the Texas offense returns just 40 percent of its offensive production. That is compared to 62 percent on defense, which means overall the Longhorns rank No. 82 in the country in returning production for 2025.

Any time there is a loss of production, it certainly is nothing to snuff at. Replacing production is easier said than done, but because the Longhorns had to do it last year, coming off the CFP semifinal loss to Washington, head coach Steve Sarkisian and Co., already have proven they can do it.

Sure, having a new quarterback along with four new offensive line starters, and a receiving corps that has talent, but not the high-end production as in years past, does prompt questions. Selling stock in the Longhorns for being a "half step" behind doesn't seem to make as much sense as, say, just holding the stock.

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