Texas Longhorns 'Overvalued' in Preseason FPI Rankings?

Are the Texas Longhorns receiving too much hype in preseason rankings?

Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian before the College Football Playoff semifinal against the Ohio State Buckeyes. | Tim Heitman-Imagn Images

With the 2025 college football season rapidly approaching, it seems like a new ranking of some kind is coming out each and every day. On Tuesday, that ranking came courtesy ofESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), and it sure contains some surprises.

What may come as a surprise to some, but not others, is the fact that the Texas Longhorns top the rankings, and by a decent margin at that. The Longhorns have an incredibly talented roster, arguably the most talented in the country, but so much of their season depends on an inexperienced starter in Arch Manning. While he has the potential to be a generational talent, there's always going to be some doubt until he actually takes the field.

In fact, ESPN's Bill Connelly believes the Longhorns to be the most overvalued team in FPI's rankings, albeit in halfhearted fashion.

Texas Longhorns Head Coach Steve Sarkisian during their first practice of the spring season. | Ricardo B. Brazziell/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

"We can't say for sure that FPI is overvaluing Texas because if Arch Manning lives up to his hype, the Longhorns really might be the best team in the country," Connelly wrote. "However, if he's merely very good instead of great, then holes elsewhere might become problematic.

"This is, after all, a team that lost four offensive line starters, its top four defensive linemen and two of the best DBs in the country in Jahdae Barron and Andrew Mukuba. Steve Sarkisian has obviously recruited well, the replacements for those lost linemen could be excellent, and Texas will be very good regardless. But they're only No. 1 if Arch is an All-American. No pressure."

As Connelly noted, the Longhorns' floor is extremely high due to the sheer talent at nearly every position. Again, though, much of that talent is unproven. Less than half of their starters from the Cotton Bowl return for this season, after all.

If the talent develops as expected, though, the Longhorns will undoubtedly be a strong national title contender.