Texas' Updated College Football Playoff Chances After Final Week of Season

The Texas Longhorns remain on the bubble for the College Football Playoff but their chances of making it into the 12-team bracket look very slim.
Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning keeps the ball and runs for a touchdown during the second half against the Texas A&M Aggies at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium.
Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning keeps the ball and runs for a touchdown during the second half against the Texas A&M Aggies at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

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The Texas Longhorns picked up arguably the best win in college football this season with a 27-17 victory over the No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies on Friday night in Austin, ending their heated rival's chance at an undefeated regular season.

There's no doubt that the win now becomes a feather in the cap for the Longhorns' College Football Playoff hopes, as it gave Texas its third Top-10 win of the season.

However, it still likely isn't enough to help the Longhorns secure a spot in the CFP for a third straight year.

Texas Longhorns Need Miracle to Make College Football Playoff

Texas Longhorns cornerback Kobe Black
Texas Longhorns defensive back Kobe Black and teammates react after making an interception during the second half against the Texas A&M Aggies at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

After the rest of the games around the country went final on Saturday, Texas saw its CFP odds take a notable hit, as the Longhorns entered the last week of the regular season already needing some outside help on top of a win over Texas A&M.

According to ESPN's FPI, the Longhorns now have just a 1.6 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff despite toppling the Aggies.

Immediately following Friday's win, Texas saw its chances jump up to 11 percent but the lack of outside results on Saturday likely killed any chance the Longhorns had at sneaking in.

Texas Got Little Help in Final Week of Regular Season

Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian
Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian looks on prior to a game against the Georgia Bulldogs at Sanford Stadium. | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Aside from Ohio State eliminating the Michigan Wolverines from playoff contention and away from the bubble, the Longhorns had next to nothing go their way on Saturday.

No. 8 Oklahoma escaped the LSU Tigers in a 17-13 slugfest while the No. 14 Vanderbilt Commodores handled No. 19 Tennessee in an impressive 45-24 victory.

After trailing 14-0, the No. 9 BYU Cougars woke up and took care of business against the UCF Knights in a 41-21 finish. No. 12 Miami beat No. 22 Pittsburgh, 38-7, while No. 10 Alabama survived in the Iron Bowl against Auburn, 27-20.

No. 9 Notre Dame bashed Stanford in a 49-20 win to end the night off, as most teams above or around the bubble all picked up wins, aside from Michigan.

Despite the high likelihood that Texas is left out, Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning didn't hold back when asked what he thinks his team can do if it were to land a spot in the 12-team bracket.

"We're a good team," Manning said. "We play a lot of good teams. We're only getting better. If they let us in, we can beat anyone. ... This team never loses the fight, shows up every week no matter what the media says about them or if we didn't play well the week before, just keeps fighting and keeps continuing to get better. It's fun to be a part of."


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Zach Dimmitt
ZACH DIMMITT

Zach Dimmitt is the Deputy Editor for Texas Longhorns On SI and Texas A&M Aggies On SI. He also contributes as a writer for the On SI channels of the Oregon Ducks, Baltimore Ravens and Tennessee Titans. He was previously the editor-in-chief of Buffalo Bills on SI, Philadelphia Eagles on SI and Seattle Seahawks on SI. Born and raised in San Antonio, Texas, Dimmitt received his Bachelor’s Degree in journalism at the University of Texas at Austin in 2022. He originally started with SI’s Fan Nation network in 2021, providing extensive coverage of the NFL and NBA along with college football and basketball. In that time, Dimmitt has published thousands of stories and has reached millions of people across multiple fan bases. You can follow him on X at @ZachDimmitt7

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