Best & Worst Case Scenarios for the UCF Knights on Selection Sunday
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The odds look good for the UCF Knights men's basketball team to make history on Sunday night by offically hearing its name called on Selection Sunday for the first time since 2019.
However, while the likelihood of the Knights hearing their name is high, just exactly when their name will be called is a different story.
Here are the best and worst-case scenarios for what coach Johnny Dawkins and his team could hear on Sunday night:
Worst-Case Scenario
If the Knights want to make it back to the second round, as they did in 2019, then being sent to Dayton, Ohio, for the First Four as an 11-seed would present them with the biggest challenge to do so.
Instead of needing to win just one game to get into the second round, UCF would have to win two. That's 40 extra minutes of basketball that opponents did not have to play, 40 extra minutes that players could get hurt and 40 extra minutes that could result in the end of its season.
This outcome does remain a possibility, since one team in the Atlantic 10 Championship game, VCU, sits just ahead of UCF in the NET rankings and just behind them in the Wins Above Bubble rankings. Should a shuffle in the bubble happen one more time as a result of the outcome of Sunday's Atlantic 10 Championship game between VCU and Dayton, there is a chance the Knights draw the short stick and are shuffled back to a Last Four In slot, which would send them to the First Four.
Now, teams advancing to the Sweet 16 from the First Four are not unheard of. Since the games were introduced in 2011, five teams have done so, with 2011 VCU and 2021 UCLA even making it to the Final Four. However, it is still a rare feat.
Best-Case Scenario
The consensus among bracketologists as of Sunday morning is that the Knights are going to be a 10-seed, and it is in their best interest that it holds true on Sunday night.
In its Division 1 era, UCF has never made it farther than the second round in the tournament. Should the Knights have the opportunity to make it further this season, the seeding matchups potentially in store favor them as a 10-seed, which has historically been more successful against 2-seeds than 9-seeds have been against 1-seeds.
With a crop of 1-seeds that could include Duke, Arizona, Florida and Michigan, a path that avoids them for the longest amount of time is also in UCF's best interest for an extended tournament run.
The Knights officially learn their fate during the 2026 NCAA Tournament selection show at 6 p.m. on Sunday night on CBS.
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Catch up on more UCF news below:
UCF March Madness Tournament Projection: What Seed Will The Knights Get?
UCF Bubble Watch: Why The Knights Deserve To Be In March Madness
Bryson Turner is a sports journalist who covers UCF Athletics. Turner has contributed to the Black and Gold Banneret, the home for UCF Athletics on SB Nation. He has called the Orlando area home since the age of 8 and received his bachelor's and master's degrees from UCF.
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