UCF March Madness Tournament Projection: What Seed Will The Knights Get?
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While the UCF Knights' men's basketball team's run in the Big 12 Tournament came to an end on Thursday afternoon at the hands of 1-seed Arizona, there are more games yet ahead for coach Johnny Dawkins and his squad.
The Knights have not received an invitation to dance in March Madness since 2019, but a consensus has formed among several bracketologists, including ESPN's Joe Lunardi, Fox Sports, Field of 68 and Andy Katz, that their return is coming this season. It would be the program's first NCAA Tournament appearance in its Big 12 era.
The only questions remaining for the Knights are their seed and the location of their first-round matchup. While Selection Sunday is still a couple of days away, several bracketologists have been coming to a consensus there as well.
- Where Do Bracketologists Have UCF?
- Why UCF won't be that seed
- Why UCF will be that seed
- UCF Knights on SI's Projection
Where Do Bracketologists Have UCF?
ESPN's Joe Lunardi, CBS Sports, Fox Sports' Mike Decoury and On3's James Fletcher all have the Knights as a No. 10 seed in their latest bracketologies as of Friday evening.
All of them, with the exception of Decoury, have the Knights in the same group as No. 2-seed UConn. Lunardi and Fletcher also have the Knights among the tournament's Last Four Byes, otherwise known as the last four teams that do not have to play in the First Four in Dayton, Ohio.
There are still conference tournament games that still have to play out, however, with one in particular that could alter UCF's seeding: the Atlantic 10.
Why UCF won't be that seed
Current bracketologist projections have the Atlantic 10's St. Louis, ranked No. 29 in the NET ranking, safely in the tournament, while VCU, ranked No. 44 in the NET rankings, is among the Last Four In and going to the First Four. A championship game between these teams, with a win by VCU, could cause UCF's position among the last few teams to shift, potentially sending the Knights to Dayton instead.
Another team that could send UCF down from a 10-seed is Oklahoma. The Sooners, who some bracketologists have in the tournament and others have out, are currently set to tip off in the SEC tournament quarterfinals at 9:30 p.m. ET against Arkansas. With the pedigree of the SEC tournament's remaining teams, any number of wins from Oklahoma can give it a boost that could replace UCF as a 10-seed.
On the other end, there are also teams currently seeded above UCF by several bracketologists that, with UCF getting early exits from their conference tournaments, could raise UCF's profile. Those include UCLA in the Big Ten, Utah State in the Mountain West and the aforementioned St. Louis in the Atlantic 10, barring a matchup against VCU in the championship game.
Why UCF will be that seed
Dan Gavitt, the NCAA's senior vice president of basketball, said to CBS Sports last month that the selection of at-large teams was "probably" more correlated to a team's Wins Above Bubble (WAB) ranking than its NET ranking. Taking a look at teams with games still to play, there are several that are still around UCF's place in the WAB rankings, which could impact its seeding placement.
However, should there be an equilibrium of teams rising and falling through these rankings until Selection Sunday, the Knights could end up getting leapfrogged from both directions and end up staying as a 10-seed.
There is also the case that the Knights are not the first in line to get bumped down to the First Four if another team manages to play its way into March Madness. As of Friday evening, teams that join UCF among the Last Four Byes include NC State, Santa Clara, Miami (OH) and Missouri. All four of them are ranked lower in the WAB rankings than the Knights and are out of their respective conference tournaments. So, even if the likes of Oklahoma and VCU play their way out of going to the play-in games, the committee has several other options to consider for the First Four before UCF enters the conversation.
UCF Knights on SI's Projection
Considering the positions of other bubble teams yet to play, the Knights are likeliest to remain at a 10-seed.
If the selection committee goes by WAB rankings, UCF is the highest-ranked 10-seed, so teams like VCU and Oklahoma that could play their way up are likelier to displace other teams before UCF.
As for the likes of teams ranked above UCF that could get upset, a consenus among bracketologists currently has them at 8-seeds. Is there a chance that an 8-seed could fall to a 10-seed and UCF gets bumped up? Perhaps. However, that does not seem the most likely.
The Knights learn their official fate on Sunday at 6 p.m.
Catch up on more UCF news below:
UCF Bubble Watch: Why The Knights Deserve To Be In March Madness
UCF Basketball Keeps March Madness Hopes Alive With Overtime Victory
Bryson Turner is a sports journalist who covers UCF Athletics. Turner has contributed to the Black and Gold Banneret, the home for UCF Athletics on SB Nation. He has called the Orlando area home since the age of 8 and received his bachelor's and master's degrees from UCF.
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