Predicting the Alabama Versus Cincinnati Final Score

Projecting the final score for the Cotton Bowl game between Alabama and Cincinnati.

Author:
Brian Smith
Publish date:
Dec 31, 2021 11:01 AM EST

DALLAS - Today’s matchup between Alabama and Cincinnati has a unique flavor to it with a Power Five traditional power going against an upstart non-Power Five team in Cincinnati. Here’s a look at three areas that will help determine the final score of this contest.

Keep in mind, this Cincinnati team is not one’s traditional non-Power Five squad. While many of them were not national recruits, the Cincinnati coaching staff has helped to cultivate many talented athletes into exceptional college football players that will soon be NFL players. Alabama will be challenged in many different ways.

First off, Cincinnati will bring a plethora of different defensive looks at Alabama’s inconsistent starting offensive line. The same line that’s struggled to protect Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young during games against other aggressive defensive fronts like Texas A&M and Auburn.

In particular, watch for defensive end Myjai Sanders. Teams schemed against him this season by shifting protections and chipping him. While that may have worked in slowing him down to only 2.5 sacks, it opened the door for six other Bearcats to record three or more sacks on the season, and the defense as a whole to record 37 sacks.

If Alabama cannot completely leave its offensive tackles on an island with Sanders and need to give them help, that’s likely to place several other offensive linemen in a position to be one-on-one with top-notch pass rushers. This battle is absolutely pivotal today. For Cincinnati to pull off the upset, they must consistently pressure Young because he’s incredibly accurate and timely with his down-the-field passes that Alabama lives off of.

Next, Can Cincinnati running back Jerome Ford get going early and often against Alabama? The Bearcats are not likely to win a shootout with the Crimson Tide, so Ford needs to be able to average over four yards a carry in every single quarter of the game. Slow, methodical (and to an extent, boring), drives are absolutely paramount for Cincinnati. Eat the clock, eat the clock, and eat the clock some more.

Limit possessions for Alabama and score to gain a lead. Again, Cincinnati is not a thoroughbred. It needs to bleed the clock with Ford’s downhill runs and keep Young on the sidelines. Even one of the four quarters where Alabama bottles up Ford could be devastating to Cincinnati’s chances of victory.

Finally, the big plays in the secondary. This is more about players stepping up and making them than any specific design by the Alabama or Cincinnati coaching staffs. An incredible amount of skill talent on each side of the football will be going after jump balls and making runs at picking off passes.

Who makes those plays? Here are a few situations to watch:

**Watch out for Cincinnati wide receiver Alex Pierce. His 50 catches and eight touchdowns came by way of size, speed and athleticism. He’s going to play on Sundays so when he catches a touchdown today, do not be surprised.

**When Alabama goes deep to its skill talent like wide receiver Jameson Williams, how well do the Cincinnati safeties and cornerbacks play the football without interfering? That fine line of being physical or too physical is going to be telling with how many yellow flags fly onto the turf.

Williams is going to make some plays, but the Bearcats cannot also allow extra yardage via penalties.

**Alabama’s screen game has been magical the past several years. Can Cincinnati tackle at an elite level when the Alabama receivers and running backs go one-on-one with them and nothing but green after that defender before the goal line?

It’s hard enough to defend Alabama’s traditional passing game, but if it’s successful with screens as well, Cincinnati is going to be in big trouble.

**Will there be an unsung hero coming out of this game from one of the skill players? Perhaps Alabama tight end Cameron Latu will help offset the loss of wide receiver John Metchie III and be a red zone threat. For the Bearcats, it could be Josh Whyle, a player that’s likely to be in single coverage all game long.

Looking at some of the prime factors for this game, look for Cincinnati to be unsuccessful at consistently running the football, and that’s going to be very costly. Alabama allows just 82.8 yards rushing per game. Ford will probably struggle to surpass 75 yards on the ground.

That will mean Ridder has to create too many plays and it will lead to sacks and at least a couple of turnovers.

On the other side of the football, Alabama will probably have more long yardage situations than it’s used to, and that’s going to hinder their efforts as well. Sanders and the Bearcats will get some sacks and also change play calls because of their pass rushing ability.

The skill position talent on both sides of the field are probably far closer to even than many know, especially with Ahmad Gardner and Coby Bryant playing cornerback (and both soon in the NFL) for the Bearcats. There will be some momentum-swinging plays for each side, but do not be surprised when Cincinnati holds its own in the secondary with Alabama. The Bearcats back four is legit.

Overall, the score is not going to be as high as some may think. Good game, and the Crimson Tide pulls away late to win over Cincinnati. The key is Alabama’s ability to slow down Cincinnati’s running game and getting Young back on the field. He will make a few more plays than Cincinnati can handle, and it’s the difference as Alabama will move on to the National Title game.

Alabama 34 Cincinnati 17